CDC Director Counters Media Narrative, Predicts COVID Death Toll Will Be 'Much Lower' Than Models
With the establishment media pouncing on COVID-19 models that portray the coronavirus wreaking unprecedented death and destruction across the country, one of the nation’s most prominent health experts is breaking from the doom and gloom.
In fact, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is predicting the death toll to be “much, much, much lower” than epidemiological models available to the public have suggested.
Speaking Monday to KVOI Radio in Tucson, Arizona, Redfield did not disclose any specific CDC models to back up his prediction, but he attributed his projection of a lower death toll to Americans taking social-distancing policies seriously.
“If we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline. And I think that’s what you’re seeing,” he said, ABC News reported.
Redfield also appeared to dump cold water on models used by the White House coronavirus task force last week to predict between 100,000 and 240,000 of coronavirus deaths throughout the country.
“Models are only as good as their assumptions, obviously there are a lot of unknowns about the virus,” Redfield said.
“A model should never be used to assume that we have a number.”
He further divulged that the “CDC had models early on — we didn’t really publicize the models.”
“We used them internally to understand mitigation strategies.”
This information is of course counter to narratives being pushed by the establishment media, which has latched on to models touted by White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx and National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci.
The death toll projected by the task force appears to have been based in large part on an Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model, according to The Washington Post.
But that model’s numbers are rapidly changing as fewer cases than expected have been reported nationwide.
The Hill reported Wednesday that the IHME model “has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 60,415 by early August.”
Those numbers were down from Sunday, when the same model projected 81,766 COVID-19 deaths, according to CNN.
The downward trend in the modeling is undeniable.
There is now cautious optimism in New York City, where the numbers of new cases and deaths from the coronavirus have shown signs of slowing.
The New York Post reported that the city’s “rise in new coronavirus cases and deaths slowed on Monday compared to the average increase over the past three days.”
While New York is still in a dire situation, there is hope that the spread of the disease has hit its apex.
“The flattening — possible flattening — of the curve is better than the increases that we have seen,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Monday.
In Chicago, Illinois, WGN-TV reported Wednesday that updated modeling predicts COVID-19 cases in Illinois “will not be as severe as originally feared, and local hospitals may be able to mostly handle the influx of patients.”
Additionally, WGN reported researchers “have also lowered their prediction of COVID-related deaths in Illinois to 1,588 down from their previous forecast of 3,629.”
The story here is that across the board, the trusted models touted by the establishment media are lowering their projections of incalculable sickness and death.
Hopefully, that downward trend continues.
Redfield’s comments give credence to claims that death projections from public health experts have been overestimated from the beginning.
Redfield’s optimism about the number of COVID-19 deaths also vindicates President Donald Trump, who has been dragged by the establishment media for sharing his hope that through mitigation strategies and hard work, the country’s health system can get the outbreak under control.
There are two narratives that have been pushed by the establishment media in the last month.
The first is that the death toll will be catastrophically high — this has been based on models that have potentially overestimated figures.
The second is that Trump has ignored science by breaking from his own health experts and sharing his optimism about when things might get back to normal.
While both lines have been pushed in attempts to damage Trump’s credibility, evolving scientific data and the comments from Redfield are good news for a president who has had to fight not only a pandemic, but also an obstructionist national media, every step of the way.
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