CNN Poll Reveals Landslide Expectation for Trump Win in 2020
To watch CNN’s incessantly negative coverage of President Donald Trump, one would think the president has absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning re-election in 2020.
Yet a newly released CNN poll shows that a majority of Americans believe Trump is on track to do exactly that: Win re-election and remain in the White House for another four-year term.
The poll, the results of which were posted Wednesday, was conducted for CNN by independent research company SSRS and queried more than 1,000 respondents between May 28-31 on a host of issues related to Trump.
One question asked respondents to provide their “best guess” as to whether Trump would win re-election or not.
A whopping 54 percent of those polled said they believed he would win, while 41 percent said they thought he would lose and 5 percent offered no opinion either way.
That’s a remarkable number, and if it were to hold true and translate into actual votes come Election Day, Trump could win his second term in an electoral landslide.
Making that number even more remarkable is the fact that it’s almost a complete reversal from the results obtained by the same polling firm with the same question in December 2018.
At the time, just 43 percent of respondents said they believed Trump would win, and 51 percent said they believed he would lose.
As much consternation as the Trump re-election question likely gave the folks at CNN, they were probably irked even more by the fact that Trump performed better on this question than former President Barack Obama did in May 2011.
Eight years ago, only 50 percent of respondents believed Obama would win, while 44 percent believed he would lose and 6 percent offered no opinion. Obama won re-election in 2012.
One probable reason for this stunning result in a CNN poll about Trump’s re-election chances is that, despite the network’s biased coverage of the president, the state of the nation’s economy has managed to override the incessant negativity and yapping of talking heads.
Asked to rate the nation’s current economic state, 70 percent of respondents in the CNN poll said the economy was either “very” or “somewhat” good, while only 29 percent rated it as “somewhat” or “very” poor.
One would have to go all the way back to the period between 1997 and 2001 to find similar high marks for the state of the economy in this poll.
Obama’s high-water mark on this particular question was 53 percent “net good” in September 2016, unless one were to count the 57 percent “net good” mark reached in January 2017, though that was no doubt attributable to the substantial economic boost caused by Trump’s 2016 election.
As for Trump’s impact on the economy, the poll revealed that 52 percent of respondents approved of how he’s been handling it, compared to 41 percent who disapproved.
The Hill summed up the new poll’s results nicely: “The most recent poll shows Trump scoring his highest marks on his handling of the economy, with 52 percent approving and 70 percent saying the economy is in good shape.”
Furthermore, the economy was far and away the top reason cited — 26 percent — by those who said they approved of the president’s overall job performance to explain why they did so.
Only 1 percent of those who disapproved of the president’s overall job performance cited the economy as their main beef.
To be sure, one CNN poll doesn’t guarantee Trump’s victory in 2020.
But given the historical strength of incumbent presidents seeking re-election, especially when paired with a strong economy, the odds are aligned in his favor at the moment.
Indeed, quite a few modelers and predictors — even those who openly admit their distaste for the president — have concluded that Trump’s re-election is far more likely than not, provided things like the economy remain the same or better over the next year and a half.
CNN can talk trash about Trump all day long.
But the numbers don’t lie — a significant majority of the country can clearly see that Trump is winning when it comes to the economy.
And it’s not likely that American voters will change horses mid-stream if the economy remains as strong as it is now.
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