COVID-19 Models Triggering Economic Collapse Are ‘Garbage’: 'The Federalist' Co-Founder Sean Davis
Businesses have been destroyed and countless jobs have been lost because of scientific models predicting that the effects of the coronavirus epidemic would be devastating.
That would’ve been a necessary sacrifice to make, if not for the fact that those models were “garbage.”
That’s the take from prominent conservative and co-founder of The Federalist, Sean Davis, who called out the inaccuracy of models by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation that are used by the White House.
Davis voiced his displeasure with the models in a thread on Twitter.
He posted a chart of the IHME’s astronomical projections of the number of hospital beds that would be needed for coronavirus victims versus the actual need. The IHME predicted the need for hospital beds nationally would top 250,000 by April 10, according to the chart. The actual number was about 50,000.
The IHME hospitalization models, which were used as the primary basis to shut down America to “flatten the curve,” are garbage. Not only does IHME fail to accurately predict tomorrow, it can’t even accurately predict yesterday, both at the state and national level. pic.twitter.com/PLEYQ4Lypj
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 13, 2020
“The IHME hospitalization models, which were used as the primary basis to shut down America to ‘flatten the curve,’ are garbage,” Davis wrote.
“Not only does IHME fail to accurately predict tomorrow, it can’t even accurately predict yesterday, both at the state and national level.”
In his thread, Davis ruthlessly critiqued the IHME models for the U.S., Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, all of which were off by huge margins.
For Florida, according to the chart Davis posted, the IHME projected Florida would need more than 10,000 hospital beds by this point in the pandemic. The number is actually about 3,000.
The IHME state level hospitalization predictions are also garbage. At this point, there is simply no reasonable justification for IHME’s continued refusal to backtest its models. Here’s Florida, for example. pic.twitter.com/jckYkMxaGg
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 13, 2020
In Georgia, the picture was similar, according to the chart Davis posted. The projection showed about 8,000 beds would be needed by this point, the actual number is less than 3,000, according to the chart.
IHME’s doomsday predictions about Georgia have similarly failed to materialize. pic.twitter.com/xIhVPE7Zej
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 13, 2020
But IHME’s projection for Tennessee was the worst, according to the charts Davis posted. It showed a projected hospitalization that was off by as much as 2,000 percent, Davis wrote.
IHME’s horrificallly wrong modeling of Wuhan coronavirus-related hospitalization in Tennessee, however, is in a class all by itself. IHME claimed that nearly 12,000 Tennesseeans would be hospitalized as of yesterday. The actual number? A total of 567 people. Only off by 2,000%. pic.twitter.com/k13UuUwaGV
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 13, 2020
“Tennessee, however, is in a class all by itself. IHME claimed that nearly 12,000 Tennesseeans would be hospitalized as of yesterday. The actual number? A total of 567 people. Only off by 2,000%,” Davis wrote.
Davis ended his Twitter thread with a biting final tweet about “made-up and arbitrary” numbers.
“At this point, you could draw your own completely made-up and arbitrary Wuhan coronavirus hospitalization curve in Microsoft Paint, and it would likely be more accurate and maybe even more defensible than what IHME is producing each day,” he wrote.
At this point, you could draw your own completely made-up and arbitrary Wuhan coronavirus hospitalization curve in Microsoft Paint, and it would likely be more accurate and maybe even more defensible than what IHME is producing each day. pic.twitter.com/ckLD049J9Q
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 13, 2020
On the IHME website, the organization lists “Scientific Excellence” as its No. 1 principle. What exactly does anyone think is “excellent” about putting out models that are off by as much as 2,000 percent?
In a video posted to the IHME Twitter account only a few hours prior to Davis’ comments, Dr. Christopher Murray, director of IHME, explained why the organization is now insisting the economy stay shut down for the foreseeable future.
The number of deaths attributed to the coronavirus, Murray said, will first have to reach a “very low level” before normal life could return without fear that the epidemic will reignite.
Davis pushed back against these statements as well.
“Having used garbage models as a pretext for shutting down the U.S. economy and destroying tens of millions of jobs, IHME is now shifting to creating garbage models as a pretext for demanding that the U.S. economy stay shut down indefinitely,” Davis wrote.
Having used garbage models as a pretext for shutting down the U.S. economy and destroying tens of millions of jobs, IHME is now shifting to creating garbage models as a pretext for demanding that the U.S. economy stay shut down indefinitely. https://t.co/FI04aXJ1NF
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) April 13, 2020
Many are furious over the inaccuracy of these models, as they should be.
The economy of the country, the lives of everyday Americans, their businesses, jobs and life savings were sacrificed based on these very models.
On Friday, Daily Wire host Matt Walsh put it best in a tweet responding to a Twitter post by Washington Examiner managing editor Jay Caruso, who was critical of those who are skeptical of the experts’ endless projections.
“Well, the anger about the models might have something to do with the fact that blind faith in them has resulted in 17 million lost jobs in three weeks,” Walsh wrote. “Might be a reason for folks to be a bit peeved. Just maybe. I don’t know.”
In any scientific inquiry, some level of error is to be expected.
However, IHME models were used as justification to ruin many Americans’ financial futures. Yet the “experts” still expect the country to be shut down based on their studies.
America needs to find new experts to trust. Hopefully, the country is done ruining millions of lives based on this type of “garbage.”
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