Dem Disaster Forming for 2018: Trump's Winning in All Important Swing Counties
Is the blue wave coming? Well, it certainly appears that way after Troy Balderson seems to have barely won a safely-Republican district in Ohio in a special election.
(I say seems, because the race is currently still contested, although there’s about as much chance of Democrat Danny O’Connor coming out the winner of the contest as there is of the Houston Oilers being the next Super Bowl champs.)
So, where does that leave us as Republicans? If Troy Balderson can only escape with the slimmest of victories in the reddest of districts, what are the odds of the GOP retaining the House in the fall?
Pretty damn good, actually.
Okay, before you start accusing me of drinking the Trump Kool-Aid, let me point out two things.
First, Kool-Aid gets a bad rap; Kool-Aid knockoff Flavor-Aid was actually used as the delivery device for most of the cyanide at Jonestown.
Second, if Republican voters are motivated, they’ll keep the House — at least, if a poll about how swing voters feel about Trump is any indication.
There’s a new Monmouth Poll that came out this Monday, and most of the news isn’t exactly Trump-tastic. In fact, the title of the poll is, “Few Say Trump Hires ‘Best People.'”
There is, however, a bit of very good news for the GOP in there that most people in the media didn’t exactly take notice of:
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1031623709021413376
Now, in counties where Trump had heavy support in 2016, he has a commanding lead. Same for counties Hillary had strong support in.
However, in swing counties — where the GOP needs to win in 2018 — Trump holds a plurality of support.
This is great news for Trump, particularly since — as Girdusky points out — Trump’s approval ratings aren’t looking terrible.
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1031629579188936705
The problem, it seems, isn’t Trump’s popularity. It’s voter apathy.
Take the Ohio special election: “As ominous for Republicans was the sizable gap in turnout between the most heavily populated suburban counties and the more rural reaches of the district,” The New York Times reported.
“A higher percentage of voters from Franklin and Delaware Counties, the two largest jurisdictions, cast ballots than in the other, far smaller five counties.”
Now, special elections are often sui generis. The party in power doesn’t usually care, whereas the party out of power uses them as an opportunity to vent their spleen. In the age of Trump, this is more true than ever.
However, that’s always the problem with midterms, too — and while it happens to a lesser extent, keep in mind we’re again talking about Donald J. Trump, the most hated Republican since … well, the last Republican president.
That said, autumn isn’t yet upon us. The election season hasn’t yet begun, and the possibility of getting out the GOP vote is still very extant. Republicans need to remind voters about the economy, about Trump’s victories on the world stage and how another two years of a GOP-controlled Congress will benefit conservatives. Forty or fifty percent turnout simply won’t cut it, though.
Girdusky himself may have said it best:
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1023242335285641216
If that happens, conservatives will all be drinking champagne this November. If not, we’ll find ourselves with a glass full of Flavor-Aid.
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