Report: Paul Ryan Stepping Down… Became Clear What Was Coming

Looking ahead to what will likely be a very contentious 2018 midterm election season, a top Republican may not have the stomach for a fight that’s going to be coming at him from both ends of the political spectrum.

According to Politico, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has told several top allies that he intends to step down in 2018.

“Ryan has made it known to some of his closest confidants that this will be his final term as speaker. He consults a small crew of family, friends and staff for career advice, and is always cautious not to telegraph his political maneuvers,” the lengthy Politico piece stated.

Politico continued: “But the expectation of his impending departure has escaped the hushed confines of Ryan’s inner circle and permeated the upper-most echelons of the GOP.”

The report went on to say that dozens of lawmakers, lobbyists and aides on Capitol Hill believe that Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican, will not remain in Congress past 2018.

Politico’s piece clearly took a lot of time to put together, which means word that it was coming must have been common knowledge inside the closed circle of the Beltway. As The Hill noted Thursday, “(s)speculation about Ryan’s future has swirled for months.”

But that doesn’t mean it’s gospel.

Asked at his regular news conference on Thursday if he was leaving Congress “soon,” Ryan himself chuckled and answered “no,” according to The Hill.

Washington Post reporter Josh Dawsey tweeted Thursday that an aide told him that President Donald Trump called Ryan after the Politico story was published, and Ryan said he wasn’t “going anywhere.”

Trump called Paul Ryan after Politico story broke and asked him if he was leaving. Ryan told Trump he wasn't "going anywhere," per aide.

— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) December 14, 2017

Still, there are some very good reasons to think it’s true.

Ryan, Mitt Romney’s vice presidential running mate in 2012, was a reluctant speaker in the first place, who took the job in October 2015 after Ohio Republican John Boehner stepped down — or was driven out by constant pressure from conservative House Republicans rebelling at his accomadationist stance toward the Obama White House despite having a Republican majority.

The Politico report argues that Ryan grew tired of the speakership quickly, but with the 2018 mid-term elections coming, he might have more of a reason than that to step out of the way. Ryan surely must guess that Democrats will use him as the centerpiece of their 2018 movement to take back both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and his record will make him a target for attacks in Republican races as well.

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On the Democrat side, Ryan will be attacked as an enabler of the Trump agenda. Besides the tax reform bill currently being hammered out in a conference committee, Ryan delivered the passage of an Obamacare repeal and replace bill in the House. It was Republicans in the Senate — primarily Arizona’s John McCain, who kept that key piece of Trump’s agenda from passing.

On the Republican side, Ryan could well be a figure of attack in numerous primary races, as Trump base candidates assail the power structure that has frustratingly failed to sweep away the vestiges of Obama’s presidency.

Ryan might have been a reluctant speaker in 2015, but there’s no denying he’s the embodiment of the establishment now, and all that that entails.

With Republicans losing a big election in Alabama on Tuesday to Democrat Doug Jones, liberals are now energized and will be using Ryan’s failures to encourage voters to reject the GOP and vote for leftists in 2018.

The inevitable rally cries from liberals will likely exploit Republicans who stood with Ryan. Meanwhile, he will be a lightning rod for attacks from the right for why things aren’t getting done in D.C. fast enough or at all.

Ryan’s ability to simultaneously help Democrats while hurting Republicans could cost both incumbents and up-and-coming conservatives crucial votes.

As of Thursday, Politico’s report was just that, a report that’s being denied by the key player involved. But it’s very possible Ryan sees clearly what’s coming in 2018, and will want no part of it.

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