Dick Morris: How Trump Will Survive
After reading the breathless coverage of impeachment by the national news media, you would have to say that Donald Trump is on the verge of political extinction.
But he’s not. He will survive this scandal and go on to get re-elected.
He’ll stay in office because the Republican Senate will never vote him out. And he’ll win the election because, with Biden falling apart and Bernie sick, his opponent will be Elizabeth Warren. She cannot survive her proposal to take away everyone’s private health insurance or to divert Medicare funding from the elderly to care for the rest of the population.
The noise out of Washington — more biased than ever — has not affected Trump’s polling. Rasmussen, the only poll to test likely voters, has his job approval solid at 48 percent and the current RealClearPolitics average is at 43.6 percent, just a point shy of his high point.
So Trump is where he has always been. He is just shy of a majority of the vote and likely to match up against a Democrat who is so progressive as to be unelectable.
While a vote to impeach him in the hyper-partisan House is a forgone conclusion, Trump can depend on a firewall in the Senate to keep him in office.
It takes a two-thirds vote in the Senate to remove a president from office. That means that 20 of the 53 Republican senators would have to defect and vote to remove the president.
Trump will educate America about the Ukraine scandal. He will show the Republican base that this is just another episode in the deep state war against him.
It is run, like the others, by Obama’s people, particularly John Brennen, former CIA director.
The charges are phony:
*The Ukraine prosecutor, as his affidavit shows, says he was fired because he was investigating Hunter Biden.
*Hunter was added to the board of the totally corrupt Ukraine energy company Burisma in order to demonstrate its pull in Washington (at the same time his dad was named point man for Ukraine).
* There is considerable evidence that the charges against former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort stemmed from Ukrainian negative research, kindled, catalyzed and perhaps funded by the Hillary campaign (just like the dossier). It was to discover these facts that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani visited Ukraine.
* The rules governing whistleblowers were changed by the Intel Community (the sponsors of the coup) just days before the whistleblower in this case filed his complaint. Previously, the whistleblower had to have first-hand knowledge of malfeasance. Now, second or third hand is good enough, qualifying this person for whistleblower status.
Will the Senate vote to remove Trump? A two-thirds vote is required. No way that will happen. The high watermark for defying the president came last month when 11 Republicans voted against the emergency declaration Trump has used to get funding for the border wall. The 11, many of whom would likely stand by Trump during impeachment, were:
Lamar Alexander, Tennessee
Roy Blunt, Missouri
Mitt Romney, Utah
Susan Collins, Maine
Mike Lee, Utah
Jerry Moran, Kansas
Lisa Murkowski, Alaska
Rand Paul, Kentucky
Rob Portman, Ohio
Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania
Roger Wicker, Mississippi
Of these senators, only Romney, Collins and Murkowski are really anti-Trump and off the reservation. Wicker is from the most pro-Trump state in the nation and can be relied upon to back the president. Lee and Toomey are reliable conservatives who probably voted against the wall due to procedural concerns. God knows what Rand Paul will do.
In any event, there is no way the anti-Trump Republican defections in the Senate could approach the 19 needed to oust him.
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