With Less Than 24 Hours to Go, New Poll Has Roy Moore Up by 9 Points

A new poll shows Judge Roy Moore increasing his lead over former prosecutor Doug Jones the day before the Alabama special Senate election.

The last four polls in the race have all shown the Republican judge in the lead. The most recent, by Emerson College, polled 600 likely Alabama voters and found Moore with a 9-point lead, a 6-point increase from last week’s Emerson poll.

The poll was conducted between Dec. 7 and Dec. 9, with a 3.9 percent margin of error; 4 percent of poll respondents supported write-in candidate Lee Busby.

Notably, Emerson’s polling just before the run-off between Moore and incumbent Sen. Luther Strange predicted the margin between the two candidates accurately, at 10 percent. The actual result in that race was 9.2 percent.

The most recent RealClearPolitics polling average shows Moore ahead of Jones by 2.5 points.

Moore’s polling numbers dropped immediately after sexual misconduct allegations arose against him, but he now seems to have regained his lead.

Emerson College professor and polling director Spencer Kimball analyzed the Emerson Polling results in a podcast.

“What we’ve noticed is Moore’s favorability have really risen over the last three weeks,” Kimball said. “He took a real dive after the allegations came out around Veterans day and slowly built himself back up.”

Jones’ numbers have stayed fairly consistent in each of the polls.

“A major event that might have contributed to Moore’s improved poll numbers is his endorsement by President (Donald) Trump this past weekend,” the Emerson College Polling Society said in a media release. “The President is more popular than either candidate with a 55%/40% favorable/unfavorable rating; Moore is at 45%/45% and Jones at 43%/45%.”

Days before the Alabama special Senate election, Trump held a rally in Pensacola, Florida, where he shared his support of Republican candidate Roy Moore.

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“We need someone in that Senate seat who will vote for our ‘Make America Great Again’ agenda which involves tough on crime, strong on borders, strong on immigration,” he told the crowd at Friday’s rally.

Trump went on to describe Moore’s opponent as a “puppet” for liberal Democrats, a claim he also made on Twitter Monday.

“Based on the polling … we’re 95 percent confidence that Moore will win on election day,” Kimball concluded in the podcast. “We’d be more confident in Moore winning by 15 percent than of Jones pulling off the upset.”

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