Elections Analyst Breaks Down the Numbers on Who is Most Likely To Face Trump in 2020
Senior elections analyst for Real Clear Politics, Sean Trende, broke down which Democrats had the best chance of clinching the party’s 2020 presidential nomination on “Fox & Friends” on Wednesday.
According to Real Clear Politics polling, former Vice President Joe Biden leads the field with nearly 30 percent of the vote, but Trende said it’s mostly due to name recognition.
“A lot of what we’re seeing in the polls for him, name recognition. People know him as former vice president, don’t know too much about him. He’s someone who’s run for president twice and won exactly zero primaries,” he said.
“He hasn’t had a competitive race since 1972. And of course, he has these kind of creepy uncle Joe slash #MeToo issues that will dog him in this Democratic primary.”
Trende moved on Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who polled just above 21 percent, and said he could end up winning the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.
“Although he’s in second place in the polls, that 20 percent that he receives is a pretty firm base of support.
“So, that plays out in two ways. He could win both Iowa and New Hampshire. And he’s only a couple points out of first place in both of those right now, which would make him pretty much unstoppable,” he said.
“The other option is that he passes the 15 percent threshold for receiving delegates in the various races while his competitors fail to cross that threshold, and he just keeps racking up delegates that way and becomes the delegate leader going into a convention.”
Trende ended the segment with former U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who polled at 8.9 and 2.9 percent, respectively.
Trende said they both may find success if they can resonate with younger voters.
“Losing a Senate race and being in Congress three years isn’t a traditional resume for [the] presidency but neither was President Trump’s, neither was President Obama’s resume.
“Things have changed in America,” he said.
“I think whatever it is Beto O’Rourke has it, it’s a thing that allows him to stand on a diner countertop and not look hokey.”
“I think [Buttigieg ] has a lot of charisma. I think he’s someone who can appeal to young voters and maybe catch fire in Iowa.”
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