Trump Overtakes Biden in New National Poll 1 Week Before Election, Race Essentially Tied
A new poll shows President Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by 1 point nationally in the final week of the 2020 election, which essentially makes the race a tossup.
A Rasmussen Reports presidential tracking poll released Monday found that Trump was ahead of Biden nationally, 48 percent to 47 percent. Two percent remained undecided.
Trending: Trump tops Biden, 48%-47%, at 52% approval https://t.co/9jB9JSKC1H
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 26, 2020
Furthermore, according to Rasmussen, the president’s approval sits at a relatively healthy 52 percent.
“It’s neck-and-neck, with President Trump just barely ahead in Rasmussen Reports’ first daily White House Watch survey,” the pollster said.
Rasmussen surveyed 1,500 likely voters Oct. 21-22 and 25 via telephone and online. The poll has reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.
The Rasmussen poll certainly differs from other national polls, most of which still show Biden with a healthy lead with only eight days until the Nov. 3 election.
The RealClearPolitics average, for example, shows the Democrat up by 7.9 points.
Four major polls included in the RCP average have Biden up by double digits. The Quinnipiac, CNBC/Change Research and SurveyUSA polls each show him dominating Trump by 10 points, while the USC Dornsife poll has him up by a whopping 12 points. All four were all completed within the last week.
Rasmussen is the only pollster that shows Trump with a lead in the RCP average, although it is within the survey’s margin of error, meaning the poll shows that the race is essentially tied.
But here is one nugget of information that is noteworthy: Rasmussen had the president down to Biden by 12 points just a few weeks ago.
On Wednesday, the tracking poll showed the Democratic nominee up by 3 points, 49 percent to 46 percent.
Rasmussen noted a trend: “Two weeks ago, Biden had a 12-point lead. A week ago, he was ahead by eight. This is the first time in a month that Biden’s support has fallen below 50%.”
Now, the Monday poll shows Trump with a 1-point lead following a scandalous week for Biden and a robust final debate that saw the president pick him apart, exposing his radicalism on American energy with a calm and measured demeanor.
While most mainstream pollsters are finding Biden with a seemingly insurmountable lead, Rasmussen was among them just weeks ago.
Now it is finding a close race.
It’s worth noting that Rasmussen pollster celebrated victory in 2016, noting its “final poll was the closest among all pollsters who correctly picked Hillary Clinton to win the popular vote” in that year’s presidential election.
In October 2016, the RCP average showed then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton up by 3.3 points at this same stage in that election.
Rasmussen had Clinton up by just 1.7 points, and she eventually won the popular vote by 2.1 points while losing the Electoral College.
The pollster doesn’t need to argue with anyone about its credibility.
We will soon know who has been most accurate in looking at this year’s race.
The pollster already showed last week Trump making unprecedented inroads with black voters down the stretch.
Morning Reader Data Points:
National Daily Black Likely Voter Job Approval For @POTUS – October 19-23, 2020
Mon 10/19 – 25%
Tue 10/20 – 24%
Wed 10/21 – 31%
Thu 10/22 – 37%
Fri 10/23 – 46%— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 23, 2020
The recent Rasmussen findings are great news if you’re in Trump’s corner, but they shouldn’t be cause for celebration for the president or his supporters.
They should be taken as a message that this race is far from over and that going out and voting, and encouraging others to do the same, is more important than ever.
We don’t know what each camp’s internal polling is showing, but the president is in this thing.
Taking any premature victory laps could cost Trump crucial votes in an election that will likely come down to the wire.
UPDATE, Oct. 27, 2020: This article and its headline previously stated that the Rasmussen poll shows the race between Trump and Biden is a “statistical tie.” In fact, according to The Associated Press Stylebook 2019, using such a term to describe a poll “is inaccurate if there is any difference between the candidates.” According to the AP guidance, “for very close races that aren’t exact ties, the phrase ‘essentially tied’ is acceptable.” We have thus removed all references to a “statistical tie” and noted that the poll shows the race is “essentially” tied.
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