A new poll out from YouGov may spell serious trouble for the Democratic Party in 2020.
As reported by RealClearPolitics, the poll showed, among other things, that nearly half of Biden primary voters have no second choice if he drops out of the race.
In an attempt to discern how the Democratic field will shift as candidates drop out over the course of the primary season, YouGov Polling asked respondents for both their first and second choice among the current candidates for the nomination.
Former Vice President Joe Biden won the first choice battle over Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren by half a point — which doesn’t mean much as polls go, of course.
And it means even less because of the primary schedule, which puts Biden in an even more vulnerable position.
In the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses, Warren has a 3-point lead over Biden, according to the current RCP polling average. (In fact, Biden’s currently running in third place, after South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.) A Warren win there would be likely to strengthen her support and soften Biden’s.
Then it will be off to New Hampshire, where the two are in a dead heat for the nomination, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders close behind. If Warren wins Iowa, that momentum may be all she needs to put her over the top in New Hampshire.
Can Biden lose the first two primary contests and go on to win the nomination anyway? Sure.
But in a primary season that has already pulled candidates away from the center he hopes to claim, it seems increasingly problematic.
And that’s where the Democratic voters polled by YouGov come in.
If Biden is out after the early primaries, 47 percent of his voters — about 12 percent of Democrat votes, going by the YouGov poll — may just not show up to vote for the eventual nominee in November. That’s the percentage of Biden supporters who told YouGov that they have “no second choice” if Biden doesn’t come away with the nomination.
In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received 65.9 million votes. If the 2020 Democratic nominee receives 12 percent fewer, they can expect fewer than 58 million.
Now, assume President Donald Trump does no more than hold on to the 63 million votes he won in 2019.
In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by about 2 percent, but won the Electoral College vote, 304-227. What do you think the electoral vote will look like if he wins the popular vote by 10 percent or more, which this poll suggests is very possible?
One more reason why Trump’s own predictions of Republican success in 2020 may be even more valid than his supporters already think.
Just returned to the White House from the Great State of North Carolina. What a crowd, and what great people. The enthusiasm blows away our rivals on the Radical Left. #2020 will be a big year for the Republican Party!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 18, 2019
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