Brewing Tropical Threat Looms For Western Mexico
AccuWeather forecasters say the Eastern Pacific basin is about to come to life following a brief break in tropical activity. A brewing tropical system south of Mexico is set to bring heavy rain and damaging winds to portions of the country in the next few days, and it may even have implications for the United States.
Tropical Storm Julia was the last storm to roam in the East Pacific after it crossed over from the Atlantic basin more than a week ago. The last storm to actually form in the basin was Tropical Storm Paine. Paine developed in the open waters of the Pacific during the first week of October and was never a threat to land.
Unlike Paine, forecasters say the new tropical system brewing in the basin could produce significant impacts.
“There is a high chance that low pressure off the southern coast of Mexico becomes a tropical depression or storm later this week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
The area of low pressure is located in an environment where atmospheric factors are conducive to tropical development.
“It is located in a zone of low, vertical wind shear and warm waters, which should aid in the development of a tropical depression or storm by late week,” Douty explained.
The next named tropical storm in the basin will be given the name Roslyn.
Once the system is able to develop, forecasters say it will likely take a path that parallels Mexico’s southern coastline for a few days before it shifts to the north and northeast. This turn is forecast to place the system on a crash course with the states of Sinaloa, Nayarit and Jalisco later this weekend into early next week.
AccuWeather forecasters are concerned it could reach hurricane status before landfall, depending on how quickly this potential system is able to organize and strengthen.
“Regardless of the intensity of the system at landfall, flooding rain and mudslides are going to be a threat,” Douty cautioned.
The heaviest rain from the potential storm is forecast to arrive for portions of the Mexican coastline during the weekend as it begins its turn toward land. Drenching rainfall from this system will quickly raise flooding concerns, especially for areas that endured a direct hit from Hurricane Orlene in the first days of October.
Torrential rainfall can rapidly produce areas of flash flooding as well as force area streams and rivers to swell. Heavy rainfall can also work to compromise the integrity of area soil and lead to dangerous mudslides, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
In addition, damaging winds are possible near where the system ultimately makes landfall. Damages to trees, power lines and some structures are not out of the question depending on how strong the system is at landfall.
Even ahead of direct impacts to land, rough seas and dangerous rip currents will be a significant concern for the rest of the week.
By early next week, the circulation of the potential storm is expected to be ripped apart by Mexico’s mountainous terrain, but its lingering moisture is set to push into the southern United States.
“A storm moving out of the Rockies will pick up some of the tropical moisture later this weekend into the following week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger explained. This could result in some much-needed rain, which will include the risk of gusty thunderstorms, from Texas into the central Plains, he added.
Produced in association with AccuWeather.
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