Republicans Hold Historic Advantage Over Democrats As Midterms Approach, Says CNN Data Guru
CNN data analyst Harry Enten argued Monday that, based on current polling, Democrats are unlikely to take back the U.S. Senate in November’s midterm elections.
However, regaining control of the House of Representatives is possible.
Pointing to an average of recent polls regarding the generic Democrat versus Republican ballot, Enten noted that in 2006, when Democrats swept back into power in the House under George W. Bush, they had a plus-11 advantage on the generic ballot.
During Donald Trump’s first term, it was plus-8, which again resulted in Democrats retaking the House.
But this year, the Democratic edge is only plus-5.
“Yeah, Democrats are ahead, but they’re only ahead by five with a president whose net approval rating is bordering on minus-20 to minus-30, depending on what polls you look at,” Enten said.
“You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they’re just only sort of slightly ahead.”
WATCH: Shock CNN Admission – Dems are polling at a historic low under any GOP president, and even worse for Democrats the GOP is also beating them on favorability going into 2026.
This is a potential disaster in the making for Democrats.pic.twitter.com/XzTxyU8c7d
— The Western Journal (@WesternJournalX) April 6, 2026
Enten exaggerated how far underwater Trump is, according to Real Clear Polling average, which has him at about minus-16.
Rasmussen Reports, which more accurately forecasted Trump’s win in 2024, has him at minus-12.
Enten’s co-host said regarding this year’s generic ballot, “Five points might be enough for them to retake the House.” Republicans currently have a three-seat majority. Enten retorted that a very slight change in circumstances could move that one direction or the other.
But Republicans are likely to hold the Senate, Enten went on to contend. Recall that only one-third of Senate members are up for re-election each cycle. The GOP majority now is 53-47.
“The national environment suggests GOP holding the Senate,” he posted on social media.
Unlike in 2006 & 2018 cycles, the GOP actually leads the Dems on net favorability at this point!
The national environment suggests GOP holding the Senate.
Why? Generic ballot (Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018), Senate map (Dems need pickups in red states) & history. pic.twitter.com/zqtfAs4arP
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 6, 2026
Of those states where elections are taking place, if you assume that Republican Senate candidates win in every one that Trump carried by more than 10 percentage points in 2024, like Texas and Alaska, and the Democrats flip the ones he carried by less or lost, like Maine or North Carolina, that still leaves you with a GOP-controlled Senate of 51-49, according to Enten.
He pointed out that no Senate candidate of the opposing party has won in a state the president carried by more than 10 percentage points in the previous election going back five cycles to 2016.
To give a little further historical perspective, Democrats’ net favorability over Republicans was plus-18 in 2006 and plus-12 in 2018. Currently, Republican lawmakers are viewed more favorably than Democrats by plus-5.
Enten concluded, “So Democrats are just simply put running behind their previous benchmarks, and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate, given that map.”
Keep in mind, if the economy continues to improve and gas prices go down, Trump’s and GOP lawmakers’ approval numbers may improve.
Republicans will easily be able to make the case that if Democrats are this unpopular now, while unable to govern as the minority in the Senate and House, how much worse will it be if they take back the House and go into full resistance and harassment mode?
Americans just might decide that Democrats are not serious about governing and making the lives of Americans better, and leave Republicans in charge of the Senate and the House.
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