Things are looking better for President Donald Trump and the Republican chances of holding the House and gaining in the Senate.
It’s a trend you’ll never see in the mainstream media, but it’s happening nonetheless.
For the past month or two, Rasmussen — the only polling firm that measures likely voters — has shown Trump in the high 40s, sometimes hitting 50 percent in job approval.
But now, all of the other polling firms are also showing Trump increases.
The RealClearPolitics.com (RCP) daily average of Trump’s approval rate reflects the previous seven polls. Some use samples of adults (of whom only about 25 percent actually vote in off-year elections) or of registered voters (of whom less than half usually show up). So, while Rasmussen is more accurate, these other polls show the trend among all people, including those less informed and less likely to vote.
The RealClearPolitics.com average Trump job approval has gone up since the start of the year.
On Dec. 16, 2017, he had a dismal 37.1 percent approval. By Jan. 5, 2018, it was up to 40.4. Then, on Feb. 4, it rose to 42 percent, and it bounced along between 40 and 42 in March and April. On April 30, it was 43 percent, the highest of the year.
This 6-point gain in job approval is huge. It transforms Trump from a terrible liability into an asset. And since the more likely one is to vote at all, the more likely he is to vote for Trump, it makes turnout a key problem for the Democrats.
In congressional polls, we see a similar trend. In the generic ballot (In your district are you more likely to vote for the Democratic or the Republican candidate for Congress?) the RCP average has moved from a Democratic advantage of 9.6 percent on Feb. 26 to only 5.5 percent on April 21.
Because Democrats tend to be more concentrated in urban areas than Republicans, they generally win their seats with larger vote shares (in minority districts, often approaching almost 100 percent). Not so with Republicans. So Democrats usually need at least a 5-point edge in the generic ballot to take control.
For example, in the elections of 2010 on the congressional level, Republican candidates got only 49.9 percent of the popular vote but won 55.2 percent of the seats. Every year shows a comparable result.
Democrats, by contrast, won 47.3 percent of the vote in 2010 but got only 44.8 percent of the seats in Congress.
One reason for the better performance of Trump and the Republican candidates is the waning of enthusiasm for Democrats among millennial generation voters. A new Reuters/Ipsos Poll of 11,000 people ages 18 to 34 shows that while these young voters backed Democrats over Republicans for Congress by 47-33, the parties are now tied among this group at 39-39.
This poll reflects phenomenal slippage for Democrats among millennials. In the presidential election of 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 55-37, so a tie today is huge progress for the GOP.
Democrats and the media have peddled the myth that the midterms will be a disaster for the Republicans and Trump. This is as much of a myth as their previous certainty that Hillary would win the 2016 presidential election.
Dick Morris is a former adviser to President Bill Clinton as well as a political author, pollster and consultant.
His most recent book, “Rogue Spooks,” was written with his wife, Eileen McGann.
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