Trump Is Winning on Immigration - Multiple Polls Show Overwhelming Support and He Can Ride That to a Midterm Victory Too
For any Republican who pays attention to cultural discourse, it’s not exactly a shocker to hear that President Donald Trump’s GOP could be in hot (blue) water come the 2026 midterms.
Even setting aside the inherent disadvantages that Republicans face (like the “midterm penalty,” the phenomenon where the party that wins the presidency almost always loses congressional seats in the midterms), the GOP is also facing deeply divisive issues like the Jeffrey Epstein files and the fact that some Americans haven’t felt the economic salve that’s been promised to them.
And there’s also the matter of Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
ICE has come under intense scrutiny of late, particularly following tragic incidents that saw Renee Good and Alex Pretti die.
The prevailing theory is that Trump’s hardline immigration stances may actually come back to bite his party in the midterms.
But interestingly enough, according to multiple polls, Trump’s immigration philosophy may actually be his, no pun intended, trump card.
Take this Cygnal polling, for example. The poll, conducted among likely midterm voters with a 3.09 percent margin of error, found that despite the mass hysteria over ICE, those voters generally seem in favor of Trump’s immigration policies.
When it came to the question of “Do you support or oppose deporting those illegally in the United States back to their country of origin?” the majority of polled midterm voters were in favor at 61 percent.
(Swing voters were even more supportive, at 64 percent, while Democrats opposed at a 67 percent rate.)
“Do you support or oppose Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE) enforcing federal immigration laws to remove illegal immigrants from the U.S.?” yielded slightly more polarized findings. Among midterm voters, 54 percent supported ICE enforcing federal immigration laws, with swing voters at 59 percent support, and Democrat voters at 81 percent opposition.
Other key findings: 73 percent of voters think those that illegal aliens entering the U.S. are breaking the law, and 64 percent of voters think illegal immigration is a problem for the country.
In a Harvard/Harris poll, conducted among 2,000 registered voters and with a margin of error of 1.99 percent, the Trump administration again found some good news — amid a sea of middling news, for what it’s worth — when it comes to immigration.
In this poll, Trump wasn’t above 50 percent approval on any major metric — such as the economy or handling inflation — except for the way he’s handled anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis.
When it comes to the most pressing matters for these registered voters, the top concern was inflation, which garnered 33 percent of the votes. Right behind it at 29 percent? Immigration.
In more good news for Trump, the president’s policies are roundly popular. His immigration policies garnered 73 percent approval, eclipsed only by Trump’s policies lowering the cost of prescription drugs.
And contrary to popular belief (and most Democrat messaging) the majority of those polled by Harvard/Harris believe that both local officials and state authorities should work with ICE to remove criminals: 67 percent agreed with both the handing over of criminals and cooperation with ICE.
Oh, and speaking of Democrat messaging, 60 percent of voters agree that Democrats are encouraging ICE resistance, and 57 percent oppose that messaging.
In perhaps the biggest revelation, the overwhelming majority support deporting those who have committed serious crimes. A whopping 82 percent of those polled agree with this assessment.
Look, this is all to say: Trump and the GOP still have quite a bit of work cut out of them. The Harvard/Harris poll found that Democrats hold a 4-point lead in the midterm generic ballot.
That’s not insignificant — but neither is it insurmountable.
Americans clearly care (and approve) of Trump’s approach to illegal immigration, regardless of what leftists are screeching into their ears. This matters, and anyone who knows anything about political warfare knows the risks and advantages of making the midterms a single-issue matter.
But for a party and president that’s suffering through some extreme PR issues on matters like the economy, that risk may very well be worth it.
And if Trump and the GOP can play off this issue smartly and attack the opposition’s laissez-faire attitude on illegal immigration, maybe, just maybe, Republicans can avoid that dreaded “midterm penalty.”
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