Pollster That Accurately Predicted Trump's Swing-State Sweep Finds His Approval Exceeds 2024 Margin of Victory
While most surveys are showing President Donald Trump’s approval rating far underwater, the pollster that accurately predicted his victory in 2024 has him back in positive territory.
An Insider Advantage poll conducted Feb. 17-18 showed the president with 50 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval. The firm surveyed 800 likely voters, and the poll’s margin of error was 3.46 percent.
“After a period of weakness in his approval ratings, President Trump has come back to the 50% level, near to or exceeding his margin of victory against Kamala Harris in 2024. Other pollsters who also have correctly polled Trump in past election cycles are showing the same upward trend. Rasmussen Reports’ approval shows Trump’s approval on the rise as well,” Insider Advantage pollster Matt Towery said in a news release.
“Basically it is a combination of ICE raids becoming orderly and strategic and obvious evidence that the economy is actually turning to the positive. While the last government shutdown appeared to hurt Trump’s ratings, this one appears to be actually helping his numbers,” he added.
New – Trump approval poll
🟢 Approve 50%
🟤 Disapprove 46%Insider advantage #A – LV – 2/18
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) February 19, 2026
White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers responded to Insider Advantage poll in with a statement, saying, according to Breitbart, “President Trump is fighting hard every single day to make life affordable for working people — from delivering the largest middle class working tax cuts in history, directing executive actions that made housing affordability hit a four-year high, and unleashing American energy dominance to bring the national average for a gallon of gas below $3.”
In contrast to Insider Advantage, other recent polls show Trump’s job approval in negative territory, with Reuters/Ipsos at 38 percent approval, and Economist/YouGov, as well as Morning Consult, both at 43 percent.
CNN data analyst Harry Enten, earlier this week, highlighted some of Trump’s worst recent polling, pulling some from weeks ago, like NBC, Quinnipiac, and AP/NORC.
Some talk about Trump’s floor of support… I’m not sure he has a floor!
His net approval is at a term 2 low across a number of pollsters.
Trump’s now in worse shape than he was at this point in term 1 or where Biden was at this point in his one term.
He’s way underwater. pic.twitter.com/djVTFzztSq
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) February 16, 2026
However, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll has the president with 47 percent approval and 52 percent disapproval, which is up from a recent low earlier this month of 41 percent.
Rasmussen, like Insider Advantage, was a firm that accurately predicted a Trump win in 2024, while Ipsos and Morning Consult had Harris taking the prize.
It does not appear that Insider Advantage conducted nationwide polling that election year, but its swing-state surveys all suggested a likely Trump sweep over the then-vice president.
The polling firm had him ahead by 1 percent in Wisconsin, and he won it by 0.9 percent. In Pennsylvania, Insider Advantage also showed him up by 1 percent, and he carried it by 1.7 percent.
In North Carolina, IA had him winning by 2 percent, and he won by 3.3 percent. In Arizona, Trump led by 3 percent, according to IA, and he took it by 5.5 percent. In Georgia, Trump was ahead by 1 percent and won by 2.2 percent.
IA only showed Trump tied in Michigan going into the election. while others like Atlas Intel and Trafalgar Group had him ahead. Trump won by 1.4 percent.
The pattern appears to be that IA, in most instances, underpolled Trump’s standing slightly in 2024, while many other polling firms found Harris leading in the contest.
So it is reasonable to conclude that Trump’s job approval is closer to Insider Advantage numbers now than those reported by other polling firms.
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