Democrats Struggle as Recent Generic Ballot Is Exact Same as Day Before 2016 Election

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House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., spoke positively about his party’s prospects of holding the House of Representatives in the fall, arguing recent generic ballot polling showed the GOP where it was the day before the 2016 elections.

Appearing on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo,” McCarthy said, “When you look at what this election is going to be about, it’s about results versus resistance, Pelosi’s resistance.”

He contended that the Democrats’ agenda for the midterm elections is hurting the party’s chances of retaking the majority. That agenda, he said, includes abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement, impeaching President Donald Trump, and setting up a single-payer healthcare system.

By contrast, the Republicans can point to many achievements, first and foremost being a booming economy. He noted during the last 49 years that the employment rate has only been under four percent for eight months in all, and three of those months were this year.

Further, unemployment claims are at a 44-year low.

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“The last time there was a party in power that had economic growth at four percent, they actually gained seats,” said McCarthy.

He did not identify which election he was referring to, but the last time the nation experienced annual growth in the Gross Domestic Product of four percent or greater was in the late 1990s.

The Republican Party held the House during the 1998 and 2000 elections. In 1998, the GOP lost just four seats, thereby maintaining 223-to-211 majority.

Do you think the Republican Party will maintain the majority?

In 2000, the Republicans lost two more seats to keep a 223-to-211 edge.

The GOP currently has a 237-to-193 advantage in the House.

“Two weeks ago, the generic ballot was at the exact same place it was the day before the election in 2016,” McCarthy pointed out. The GOP lost five seats in that election.

Earlier this month, Rasmussen Reports found the congressional generic ballot tied at 44 percent, while a Reuters/Ipsos survey gave Democrats a four point edge at 41 to 37 percent.

These results are similar to polling in the final week before the 2016 election, with multiple surveys showing the two sides nearly tied or having as much as a three-point lead on either side.

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The Cook Political Report rates 182 current Democratic seats as solid holds heading into the midterms, while Republicans have 150.

However, when those rated likely to lean toward a party are factored in, the advantage shifts in the GOP’s favor, 202 to 192. Forty-one seats are rated as a toss-up.

Two hundred and eighteen seats are needed to gain the majority in the House.

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Randy DeSoto has written more than 1,000 articles for The Western Journal since he joined the company in 2015. He is a graduate of West Point and Regent University School of Law. He is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths" and screenwriter of the political documentary "I Want Your Money."
Randy DeSoto is the senior staff writer for The Western Journal. He wrote and was the assistant producer of the documentary film "I Want Your Money" about the perils of Big Government, comparing the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Randy is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths," which addresses how leaders have appealed to beliefs found in the Declaration of Independence at defining moments in our nation's history. He has been published in several political sites and newspapers.

Randy graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point with a BS in political science and Regent University School of Law with a juris doctorate.
Birthplace
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Nationality
American
Honors/Awards
Graduated dean's list from West Point
Education
United States Military Academy at West Point, Regent University School of Law
Books Written
We Hold These Truths
Professional Memberships
Virginia and Pennsylvania state bars
Location
Phoenix, Arizona
Languages Spoken
English
Topics of Expertise
Politics, Entertainment, Faith




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