Mayday (for Democrats) — on May 10, 2019, Trump passed his high water mark, scoring his highest approval since his presidency was only one month old in February of 2017.
RealClearPolitics, which features a daily average of seven national polls has Trump at 45.1 percent approval, the highest rating since February 21, 2017. His disapproval was a very low (for him) 52.3 percent.
A few key points stand out:
1. The very good economic news is obviously animating the Trump surge. With Gallup finding that 60 percent approve of his handling of the economy (including 39 percent of Democrats), Trump has laid the groundwork for higher and higher overall approval.
2. The conclusion of the Mueller report — that there was no collusion between Trump and Putin — has pulled the rug out from under the president’s detractors.
3. Don’t follow the stock market to see the political impact of Trump’s trade war with China. Follow his job approval. Trump’s wrath and obstinacy, for which he is famous, have found a worthy target in China.
While the Washington and New York political and economic elites find his tariffs inconvenient — and farmers find them ruinous — the voters approve of them. Their long frustration over the collusion between the U.S. elites and the rulers in Beijing has, at last, found expression in Donald Trump.
4. Those who approve of Trump live in another world from those who do not. The one-sided media makes both Trump’s supporters and opponents into cults. Once a person crosses the divide, he or she often feels that they have to change their friends, associates and sometimes family after jumping the partisan gap.
As such, Trump can usually count on the support of his base, likely getting all of their votes. This math makes the turf of job approval in the high forties very strategic indeed. Once he reaches 50 percent — and he’s closing in — game over.
5. Rasmussen Reports — the only poll that samples only likely voters — runs about 5-7 points more pro-Trump than the RealClearPolitics average. Now it has Trump up at 49 percent.
6. And to the ranks of Trump supporters must be added those who dislike the Democratic alternative that finally emerges, likely putting the Trumpers over 50 percent.
Trump’s re-election has never been more likely.
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