Sorry, Pats fans, the numbers say you should be very worried about the AFC title game
Full disclosure: These are the paranoid ramblings of a die-hard Patriots fan.
But it is absurd and, frankly, a little insulting to the Jacksonville Jaguars that New England opened as a 9-point favorite ahead of the AFC championship game Sunday.
The first thing one needs to do is look past the win-loss records.
Yes, the Patriots won 13 games and the Jaguars won “only” 10.
But expected win-loss numbers historically have been far more indicative of playoff success than just wins and losses.
Taking into account strength of schedule, total points for and total points against, the Patriots and Jaguars are dead even in expected wins and losses.
Both teams finished the 2017 season playing like 12-win teams. In other words, all things being considered, New England and Jacksonville are virtually even in terms of how they performed this season.
The Patriots also don’t have much of an advantage on either side of the ball.
Brady presided over the second-ranked passing offense in the NFL this season.
That’s phenomenal, but the Jaguars fielded the best passing defense in the NFL this season.
At best, that’s a wash.
If the Jaguars do have a weakness on defense, it would be their ability to stop the run. The Jags rank a pedestrian 21st in rushing defense.
But that’s not a weakness New England is equipped to exploit.
The Patriots are ranked a respectable, but certainly not dominant, 10th in rushing offense.
And if they do decide to try and beat the Jaguars on the ground, they’re effectively neutralizing the single biggest advantage they have by taking the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands. Brady is demonstrably better than Blake Bortles, but that won’t mean as much if Rex Burkhead and Dion Lewis are getting the bulk of the touches.
On the flip side, the New England rushing defense is ranked a subpar 20th. The Jaguars boast the top-rated rushing attack in the league.
Yes, the Patriots have been a sterling 8-1 in the AFC championship game when it’s held in Foxborough.
And if any coach can come up with a gameplan that maximizes chances to win, it’s Bill Belichick.
But the numbers don’t lie.
The AFC championship game is akin to a coin flip.
That’s literally a 50-50 chance — a far cry from what the big point spread would suggest.
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