In 2020 Biden Won 2 Key States by 115K, Now He's Lost Over 364K Voters in Same States
President Biden is facing an uphill battle for a second term in the White House.
But this latest news is probably going to send his campaign into a panic.
A report by the Daily Caller shows that Democratic voter registrations have dropped in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — three hotly contested states in the 2020 election.
While Democrats still hold a voter registration advantage over Republicans in all three states, the gaps have shrunk significantly.
According to Pennsylvania state election data and reported by the Daily Caller, Democrats have lost 336,269 registered voters in the state since Nov. 3, 2020. Democrats still hold a nearly 400,000 voter registration advantage over Republicans, though this a sharp decline from the 685,818 lead Democrats held going into the last presidential election.
In North Carolina, Democrats saw a decrease of 212,084 voters from December 2020 to April 2024. Democrats now only outnumber Republicans by 170,943 voters, a decrease of over 200,000 voters since 2020.
The numbers in Nevada were less staggering, with Democrats losing only 27,757 voters since December 2020. The Democratic majority in registrations over Republicans has shrunk from 96,875 in 2020, to 55,116 today.
All in all, Democrats have lost 576,110 voters in the three states combined.
According to CNN, Fewer than 200,000 combined votes decided the winner in these states in 2020. Biden won Pennsylvania by a little under 81,660 votes, and Nevada by 33,596. Former president Trump won the Tar Heel state by 74,483 votes.
Biden will need a massive turnout in each of three states if he wants any shot at victory.
The latest RealClearPolitics polling averages show Trump holding a 4.0-point lead in North Carolina, and a 3.2-point lead in Nevada. Biden is currently edging out Trump in Pennsylvania by 0.1 points.
However, while these figures are surely not what the Biden campaign wants to hear, Republican strategist Scott Jennings is cautioning people to “not over read” the data, according to the Daily Caller.
“But certainly Biden has a real problem on his hands among many segments and you can clearly see that in these results,” Jennings added. “The trick, of course, is that once people are registered, then you have to turn them out.”
A recent analysis performed by the Pew Research Center showed that the nation is basically split when it comes to overall voter registration, with 49 percent of voters registered as Democrats compared to 48 percent who are registered as Republicans.
While Jennings is right to caution Republican optimism, recent history has shown that swings in voter registrations can be very beneficial for Republicans.
Take Florida, for example. According to the Florida Division of Elections, from 2018 to 2022, Democrats only lost 47,727 registered voters. They also lost the voter registration advantage they held over Republicans.
Despite the modest gains, Republicans swept the floor in the 2022 gubernatorial election, with incumbent governor Ron DeSantis defeating Democratic challenger Charlie Crist by 1,507,897 votes, or 19.4 percent.
The shift really had to do with the man on the ballot. DeSantis’ actions during the pandemic and refusal to cower in the face of wokeness turned him into one of the most popular governors in the country.
If Trump wants to capitalize on these shifts away from the Democrats, he needs to make this election about the other man on the ballot.
While Trump does not have the surging popularity DeSantis had in 2022, he is running against a widely unpopular incumbent. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden’s latest approval rating average currently sits at 40.6 percent.
Gallup reported in February that Biden’s approval rating for his third year in office was a mere 39.8 percent, the second lowest approval for a president’s third year in the Gallup polling era. Only Jimmy Carter’s 37.4 percent was worse than Biden’s.
Carter went on to be destroyed in the 1980 general election by Ronald Reagan, suffering one of the worst defeats in presidential election history.
If Trump wants to replicate the outcome of the 1980 election, he has to make the focus of the campaign about Biden’s presidency.
Every speech, every event, every rally needs to be about how Biden has failed to deliver on anything he promised in 2020, and emphasize that Americans are worse off under Biden than they were under Trump.
And it’s not a difficult argument to make: Americans are paying more across the board for goods and services, housing and gas now than they were under Trump. Biden has made life more difficult for Americans, not better.
If Trump can stick to these points, he should have no problem winning over these ex-Democrats in November.
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