JD Vance Says 'Everyone Knows Why We Lost' in Fiery Post-Election Message
Americans who turned to the Republican Party in 2024 to get the job done turned away from it Tuesday due to the Iran war, Vice President J.D. Vance wrote Wednesday in his post-election analysis.
In his post on X, he quoted what he called the “smartest data guy I know” as telling him that “data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.’”
As the potential 2028 Republican presidential candidate noted, “that looks prophetic now,” adding, “The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.”
“There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is,” he posted, adding, “But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.”
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there,” he wrote.
Vance said a pollster he respects said voters who helped Trump win in 2024 but are now angry wanted four things: “1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel.”
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Apart from occasions like the day after Pearl Harbor, is going to war ever politically popular? Doing so is a huge political risk and the lesson of the Iran conflict is that if you go to war, you must win and quickly. It’s also a good idea not to pronounce the war over and won before it actually is.
— Brit Hume (@brithume) November 4, 2026
“In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you,” he wrote.
Vance said it’s time to pick up the pieces and form something viable for the sake of the nation.
“I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, ‘I told you so’: you’re right, you did tell us so,” he wrote.
“Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country,” he wrote.
Good start JD, but these were basically the core issues of campaign promises of 2024.
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to IsraelRepublicans lost yesterday because’24 campaign promises were not delivered, Trump called us panicans and me a traitor and you stayed silent and supported Trump while he failed, you all primaried Thomas Massie with millions from Israel, ignored rape victims of Epstein and company, and MAHA was ignored.
Just to name a few issues.
You should have listened to me and Tucker and others who told you early.
Blaming the Iran war won’t work and it’s not going to be an easy pivot.
— Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@FmrRepMTG) November 4, 2026
President Donald Trump said Vance’s position that Republicans lost due to the war was “largely true,” according to Fox News.
“It drove the gasoline up a little bit short term and probably that’s, probably it’s true. But at the same time, if I had it to do again, I’d have to do it again, because long term, it’s the only answer. You can’t let Iran have a nuclear war,” Trump said.
Regardless of what anyone thinks of the Iran war, a president saying he would do what he thinks is right for the country regardless of short term political fallout is very refreshing.
— Dave Rubin (@RubinReport) November 4, 2026
He said the war was worth it and there was “no choice.”
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