Call it a split decision — but President Donald Trump is in the lead.
A poll of voters in six states sure to play a key role in the 2020 presidential election showed Americans oppose Trump’s impeachment and removal from office by a margin of 52 to 44 percent.
That would be a clear win for Team Trump except for another part of the poll, which showed that by the same 52-44 percent margin, voters approve of an “impeachment inquiry,” which the House voted to approve on Thursday.
Finally, when given the option of either supporting or opposing both the impeachment inquiry and impeachment itself, those opposed were ahead by a slight 1 percent of the vote (a statistical tie, given the 1.7 margin of error).
But contradictory as it is, The New York Times Upshot/Sienna College poll could well be a good sign for the White House.
First of all, just look at the numbers.
The poll questioned voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. On the topic of removing the president from office, solid majorities of 51 to 53 percent were opposed.
On the topic of the inquiry, the numbers were similar in support, but it’s important to remember that they include those who support the inquiry but not Trump’s removal from office. In other words, that percentage was padded.
Finally, when voters were given the option of either opposing or supporting either impeachment or the impeachment inquiry the numbers were almost equal — 42 percent opposed to 41 percent. Eight percent were opposed to Trump’s removal while supporting the inquiry. (An additional 9 percent came under the heading of “other.”)
Obviously, a lot is going to depend on how the Democrats — under the leadership of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff handle themselves as it progresses. But that doesn’t bode well for the liberals.
Given the fact that the ham-handed way Democrats have tried to railroad Trump is about to come out from behind the closed doors of Schiff’s Star Chamber, it’s a good bet public support will start building for Trump before too long. Schiff is the kind of Democrat that can make Elizabeth Warren look cozy.
Now, look at the source. The New York Times is one of the most virulently anti-Trump news organizations in the United States. If the best it can come up with is a solid majority opposed to removing Trump from office, and reasonable support for the Democrats’ inquiry, it’s almost a given that Trump’s support is stronger than is being portrayed.
It was The New York Times, remember, that was predicting a Hillary Clinton win on Nov. 8, 2016, with an 85 percent certainty rate.
that means real number is 72% to 22%
— ScanningGuru (@GuruScanning) October 31, 2019
The American people will be making a “BIG TIME” statement in November of 2020 and “We the People” will be voting for Trump for @POTUS and straight down the @GOP line! This is a “COUP” that started the day Trump took office! DISGRACEFUL!!!!!! #Trump2020 #KAG2020
— Winston Smith (@nyc_2018) October 31, 2019
The Democrats must be made to pay a very heavy price for the way they are conducting themselves in THE PEOPLE’S HOUSE!#WEDEMANDJUSTICE
— Jim Dandy (@Independent_45) October 31, 2019
In a news release, Siena College Poll Director Dan Levy said the poll showed the percentage of the country that will likely be deciding the fate of the Trump presidency next year.
“These six states – Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — deserve the name ‘battleground,’” he said in the release.
“Across the six states, 41 percent of all voters support both the inquiry, and impeaching and removing Trump from office, while 42 percent oppose both the House probe and impeaching and removing the President.
“The remaining 17 percent, including about 8 percent of all battleground voters that support the inquiry while currently opposing impeachment and removal, may ultimately decide the next election.”
The poll was taken Oct. 13-26, according to the Sienna College news release, long before Thursday’s sharply divided vote in the House.
Judging by the evidence that has been leaked out of the closed-door hearings so far, the case Democrats are trying to build against Trump over his dealings with Ukraine looks like a reprise of their spectacular failure with the Russia “collusion” investigation.
Remember those Democratic hopes that then special counsel Robert Mueller’s appearance in Congress was going to turn the tide of American public opinion against Trump?
It didn’t happen then. And, considering poll numbers, Democrats could have an even rougher road ahead of them now. Given their recent history, it’s not looking good.
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