Establishment Polling Expert Makes His Prediction on 2024 Election - 'Isn't a Toss-Up'


Statistician Nate Silver, a card-carrying liberal who does not want former President Donald Trump to win in November, conceded the general election is no longer a “toss-up.”

“I don’t want Trump to win the election, and I’d never consider voting for him,” the analyst wrote Wednesday in a forecast headlined “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up.”

“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” he added.

Having said that, Silver — who is perhaps best known for being part of the establishment media shills at FiveThirtyEight who grossly overestimated Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 presidential election — predicts Trump has a 65.7 percent chance of victory over President Joe Biden, who has a 33.7 percent chance.

His forecast was based on 40,000 simulations run through a statistical model. It has Trump receiving 287 Electoral College votes versus 250 for Biden.

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In the popular vote, Biden has a narrow edge, with a projected win of 51 percent versus 49 percent for his GOP challenger.

This is astonishing (and astonishingly bad for Biden), given the current demographic makeup of the United States, which generally favors Democrats.

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In a long-winded analysis, Silver said Trump will likely win because of a confluence of key factors:

  • Very high inflation.
  • Concerns about Biden’s mental acuity.
  • Global pessimism about the state of the world.
  • Incumbents worldwide losing elections.
  • Biden’s dismal approval ratings.

“There’s Biden’s age, which voters have extremely persistent concerns about,” Silver wrote.

“There’s the very high inflation of mid-2021 through mid-2023 — which has considerably abated, but still is reflected in much higher prices than when Biden took office.”

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Silver continued: “There’s the fact that the global mood is pessimistic and that incumbents have been getting crushed everywhere around the world.”

“Biden has the lowest approval ratings of anyone running for re-election since either George H.W. Bush or Jimmy Carter, depending on how you squint at the numbers,” he further lamented.

Silver also noted that he wasn’t even bringing up some of the other issues hounding Biden: “The reasons he might lose are overdetermined. (I haven’t even mentioned things like immigration or the war in Gaza.)”

It’s sometimes useful to look at forecasts, but polls and predictions don’t win elections; fair elections do.

As long the potential for voter fraud goes unchecked, any election prediction is, to quote William Shakespeare, “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”

A Note from Our Deputy Managing Editor:


I heard a chilling comment the other day: “We don’t even know if an election will be held in 2024.” 


That wasn’t said by a conspiracy theorist or a doomsday prophet. No, former U.S. national security advisor Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn said that to the founder of The Western Journal, Floyd Brown.


Gen. Flynn’s warning means that the 2024 election is the most important election for every single living American. If we lose this one to the wealthy elites who hate us, hate God, and hate what America stands for, we can only assume that 248 years of American history and the values we hold dear to our hearts may soon vanish.


The end game is here, and as Benjamin Franklin said, “We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately.”


All of this means that without you, it’s over. We have the platform, the journalists, and the experience to fight back hard, but Big Tech is strangling us through advertising blacklists, shadow bans, and algorithms. Did you know that we’ve been blacklisted by 90% of advertisers? Without direct support from you, our readers, we can’t continue the fight.


Can we count on your support? It may not seem like much, but a Western Journal Membership can make all the difference in the world because when you support us directly, you cut Big Tech out of the picture. They lose control. 


A monthly Western Journal Membership costs less than one coffee and breakfast sandwich each month, and it gets you access to ALL of our content — news, commentary, and premium articles. You’ll experience a radically reduced number of ads, and most importantly you will be vitally supporting the fight for America’s soul in 2024.


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Josh Manning

Deputy Managing Editor

The Western Journal

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