Here's how difficult every NFL team's 2018 schedule is
In any given NFL season, some teams get to feast on a diet of sweet, delicious cupcakes, often riding that weak strength-of-schedule to “surprising team of the year” status when they make a playoff run.
Other teams, meanwhile, end up with a disappointing season simply because they never got a breather and had to fight for their lives as if the Super Bowl were every week of the regular season.
With that in mind, if you’re looking for a dark horse in 2018, consider the Houston Texans, who, in addition to getting a slew of injured players back healthy next season, also have the league’s easiest schedule.
Indeed, all four AFC South teams rank in the top 10 for ease of schedule, mostly because that division had its fair share of problems last year, and playing the Texans and Colts (both of whom went 4-12 in 2017) twice instantly adds a 16-48 stretch to a quarter of the season for the Jaguars and Titans.
Plus, for bonus cupcake fun, those four AFC South teams get to feast on the AFC North, which provides the tasty sweet confection that is the Cleveland Browns and their 0-16 2017 mark along with the playoff-watching Bengals and Ravens.
Sure, they have to play the Pittsburgh, which went 13-3 and will have one mother of a chip on its shoulder after honking out against Jacksonville in the playoffs in 2017, but the overall division went a combined 29-35.
Speaking of easy schedules, what goes around comes around for the Steelers, as besides being able to smack Cleveland twice, they also get to feast on those AFC South morsels, which is how they’re tied for the fifth-easiest schedule in the league in 2018.
Which is all by way of saying don’t be surprised if Heinz Field plays host to the AFC championship game in January 2019.
The hardest schedule? That belongs to the NFC North in general and Green Bay in particular.
The Packers not only have to play the Vikings and Lions, who went a combined 22-10 last year, both home and away, but they also have to play the NFC West (home to the Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals and the Jimmy Garoppolo-powered resurgent 49ers) and the AFC East (say hello to Tom Brady’s Super Bowl runner-up Patriots and the 2017 playoff Buffalo Bills.)
Detroit, in fact, ranks second in strength of schedule for all the same reasons Green Bay ranks first.
The four squads in what Chris Berman always called the NFC “Norris Division” — after three of the cities’ longstanding hockey rivalry in the NHL division formerly known by that name — all rank in the top eight for toughest schedule.
The NFL schedule is such delicious alchemy; every team plays against four division winners, four second-place finishers, four third-place finishers, and four cellar dwellers. In theory, it’s perfect balance.
In practice, one division has to contain the Cleveland Browns (speaking of whom, thanks mainly to having to play the three teams who aren’t them in their division twice, they have the fifth-toughest schedule in 2018, the only AFC team in the top half of the difficulty standings; 15 of the top 16 easiest schedules are NFC teams, and Super Bowl champ Philadelphia is 19th).
Every team plays the other three teams in their division twice, each team in two other divisions for a total of eight contests, and then two games within their own conference against teams that finished in the same position they did in each of the other two divisions besides their own and the one they play four games against (in Cleveland’s case, that means the Jets and Broncos; Pittsburgh, for example, gets the Patriots and Chiefs).
What’s more, the NFL is a clever bunch of schedule wizards: In 2010, a rule was created to ensure that if a team has to play two teams on the West Coast in the same season (say, the Raiders and Chargers), the league schedules those games such that a team doesn’t have to make two separate trips to the West Coast where other teams in their division, who would play at Kansas City and Denver, are under no such obligation.
That’s less of an issue in the NFC West, where the Rams, Niners and Seahawks are all West Coast teams and the Cardinals aren’t exactly like the Falcons were when they were in the West despite being in Atlanta or the Rams were when they were still in St. Louis.
If you’re wondering how easy or tough your team’s schedule is, here’s the complete list, conveniently broken out by division using 2017’s standings:
AFC EAST
New England (T-25th toughest): 122-134
Buffalo (18th): 127-129
Miami (T-15th): 128-128
NY Jets (T-25th): 122-134
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh (T-25th): 122-134
Baltimore (21st): 125-131
Cincinnati (T-29th): 121-135
Cleveland (T-5th): 134-122
AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville (T-25th): 122-134
Tennessee (31st): 119-137
Houston (32nd): 116-140
Indianapolis (T-22nd): 124-132
AFC WEST
Kansas City (T-19th): 126-130
LA Chargers (24th): 123-133
Oakland (T-29th): 121-135
Denver (T-25th): 122-134
Once again, you’ll notice that every AFC team has an easier schedule than 15 of the 16 teams in the NFC, and only three (the Browns, Dolphins and Bills) play a schedule that’s tougher than the easiest NFC schedule, the one the Eagles play. The NFC might be the early favorite to win the Super Bowl if you believe that playing tough teams all season long correlates to playoff success if you get there.
Onward to the NFC, and again, these are ranked by toughest strength of schedule:
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (T-19th): 126-130
Dallas (T-15th): 128-128
Washington (14th): 129-127
NY Giants (T-8th): 133-123
NFC NORTH
Minnesota (T-8th): 133-123
Detroit (T-2nd): 137-119
Green Bay (1st): 138-118
Chicago (T-8th): 133-123
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans (T-2nd): 137-119
Carolina (12th): 131-125
Atlanta (13th): 130-126
Tampa Bay (4th): 136-120
Note that Bucs opponents’ combined record against their own division is 64-32 (playing them twice). Ouch.
NFC WEST
LA Rams (T-5th): 134-122
Seattle (T-5th): 134-122
Arizona (T-8th): 133-123
San Francisco (T-15th): 128-128
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