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Breaking: Newest Poll Model Triples Chances of GOP Keeping House

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It’s not April 1 but Nov. 6 — and that means the folks at FiveThirtyEight aren’t joking.

And their model just showed a huge shift in the Republicans’ chances of holding on to the House of Representatives.

FiveThirtyEight, for the unacquainted, is a site beloved by stats geeks, particularly of the political sort. On election night, it’s best known for its live predictions as to what party will maintain control of certain seats or legislative bodies.

Like most predictions, FiveThirtyEight began the night saying the Republicans had very little chance of keeping the lower chamber of Congress. In fact, they had the GOP’s chances pegged at a 1-in-8 chance — 12.5 percent, for those of you with a Common Core education.

As the evening progressed, however, it changed somewhat dramatically:

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As I was writing this, the model seems to have been tamped down a bit. However, it’s still a lot better than 1-in-8:

(FiveThirtyEight screen shot)
Do you think this graph will turn out to be correct?

 

Several people from FiveThirtyEight seemed to think their model was being a bit sanguine about the Republicans’ chances.

“You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich noted.

“It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of ‘likely Republican’ districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.”

FiveThirtyEight impresario Nate Silver had similar thoughts on Twitter:

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Nevertheless, this is his website’s forecast.

Whether or not this means anything remains to be seen. Most news outlets still seem to have the Democrats having a high probability of taking the House as of this hour.

However, FiveThirtyEight has always been beloved as being ahead of the curve, so to speak, in making predictions. While Silver and Rakich may feel that their model is being too aggressive, it’s still a very interesting shift — and one that could be an interesting augury as the night proceeds.

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C. Douglas Golden is a writer who splits his time between the United States and Southeast Asia. Specializing in political commentary and world affairs, he's written for Conservative Tribune and The Western Journal since 2014.
C. Douglas Golden is a writer who splits his time between the United States and Southeast Asia. Specializing in political commentary and world affairs, he's written for Conservative Tribune and The Western Journal since 2014. Aside from politics, he enjoys spending time with his wife, literature (especially British comic novels and modern Japanese lit), indie rock, coffee, Formula One and football (of both American and world varieties).
Birthplace
Morristown, New Jersey
Education
Catholic University of America
Languages Spoken
English, Spanish
Topics of Expertise
American Politics, World Politics, Culture




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