A new prediction estimates that Democrats could pick up between 30 and 40 seats in the House when the dust settles from next week’s midterm elections.
“New: based on the past week’s evidence, we’re revising our House outlook to a Dem gain of 30-40 seats (was 25-35 last month) at @CookPolitical. This could change again before Tuesday,” tweeted Dave Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, in an apparently since-deleted tweet.
After getting reactions to his prediction, Wasserman defended his forecast.
Wouldn’t beat myself up if that happens. We think anything from 20 to 45 is well within realm of possibility, but 30-40 is the most likely outcome as of *today.* https://t.co/uo7KbdeTFV
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2018
“We think anything from 20 to 45 is well within realm of possibility, but 30-40 is the most likely outcome as of ‘today,'” he tweeted.
Another Cook Political Report figure said that the numbers might mean less than they seem.
What counts as a ‘blue wave’? Almost 1/2 of the most vulnerable GOP seats were won by Clinton and/or Obama ’12. If D’s win just those seats, that doesn’t count as a ‘wave’ in my book. Winning in ‘new’ territory = wave. https://t.co/BHMlE0NV9O
— amy walter (@amyewalter) November 1, 2018
“What counts as a ‘blue wave’? Almost 1/2 of the most vulnerable GOP seats were won by Clinton and/or Obama ’12. If D’s win just those seats, that doesn’t count as a ‘wave’ in my book. Winning in ‘new’ territory = wave,” tweeted Amy Walter, senior editor of the Cook Political Report.
Democrats need to gain 23 seats to take control of the House.
The website RealClearPolitics gives Democrats the edge, but with a substantial number of tossup seats.
The site, which bases its results on polling from the various races, predicts Democrats will win 203 seats and Republicans 193, with 36 seats in the tossup category. At the start of the month, RealClearPolitics was predicting 206 Democratic seats and 189 Republican ones.
The website FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats an 84.8 percent chance of controlling the House, against a 15.2 percent chance for Republicans.
To boost Republican turnout, President Donald Trump scheduled rallies in Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia, VOA News reported.
While urging voters to support GOP candidates during a West Virginia rally on Friday, Trump noted that he was aware of the predictions that the Democrats will control the House.
“It could happen, could happen,” Trump said. “We are doing very well, and we are doing really well in the Senate, but it could happen.”
“I can’t go everywhere,” he added, saying Democrats could “squeak it by.”
“And you know what you do? My whole life, you know what I say? ‘Don’t worry about it, I’ll just figure it out.’ Does that make sense? I’ll just figure it out,” he said.
Trump reminded those in attendance that the vote was not over yet.
“You have to go out on Tuesday and vote,” he said.
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