Poll: Thomas Massie Trailing Trump-Backed Primary Challenger After Leading Big Just Weeks Ago
Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky is trailing his Republican primary challenger, President Donald Trump-backed Ed Gallrein, according to the latest polling.
A new Quantus Insights poll of likely GOP voters finds Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and combat veteran, at 48.3 percent relative to Massie’s 43.1 percent, with 7.6 percent undecided.
When undecideds were asked who they were leaning toward, a majority said Gallrein, 52.4 percent, while 23.4 percent said Massie and 24.1 percent were completely undecided.
“The survey was conducted May 11–12 among 908 likely Republican primary voters, with an effective sample size of 903 and a reported weighted margin of error of ±3.3%,” Quantus said.
KY-04 GOP PRIMARY
🟥 Ed Gallrein: 48.3% (+10.6)
🟥 Thomas Massie: 43.1% (-3.7)
⬜️ Not sure: 7.6%(+/- shift vs April 6)
——
With leaners
🟥 Ed Gallrein: 52.8%
🟥 Thomas Massie: 45.1%@QuantusInsights | 5/11-12 | 908 LVhttps://t.co/7wib1eHCh3 pic.twitter.com/Yvok1mlGd1— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 13, 2026
A Quantus poll conducted in early April found Massie up 46.8 percent to Gallrein’s 37.7 percent.
Newsweek reported, “Another April poll of 433 registered Republicans conducted by Big Data Poll, found Massie ahead 53.4 percent to 47.6 percent. Massie had significant support from voters under 30 at 78.5 percent. The poll was conducted between April 3-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.”
Former Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita posted on X earlier this month: “Hey @RepThomasMassie ….you are next,” after Trump-endorsed candidates performed well against incumbent Indiana state office candidates who opposed congressional redistricting.
Trump posted on Truth Social in March, “I predict that ‘Representative’ Thomas Massie will go down as the WORST Republican Congressman in the long and fabled history of the United States Congress, even worse than Crazy Liz Chaney, Cryin’ Adam Kinzinger, and Marjorie ‘Traitor’ Brown (Remember, Green turns to Brown under stress!).
“They are all misfits and losers, but Massie, who is running against a great American Patriot in the Kentucky Primary, will hopefully lose BIG.”
Donald J. Trump Truth Social 03.11.26 07:45 AM EST
I predict that “Representative”Thomas Massie will go down as the WORST Republican Congressman in the long and fabled history of the United States Congress, even worse than Crazy Liz Chaney, Cryin’ Adam Kinzinger, and Marjorie…
— Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) March 11, 2026
ABC News reported last summer that Massie was one of two House Republicans to vote against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
At a rally in March, Trump noted that Massie voted against a continuing resolution to keep the government open last fall.
🚨 JUST IN: Rep. Thomas Massie vs Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein GOP PRIMARY poll
🔴 Ed Gallrein: 52.8% (+7.7)
🔴 Thomas Massie: 45.1%
🟡 Unsure: 2.1%
(With leaners)The primary is this coming TUESDAY@QuantusInsights | 5/11-12 | N=908LV pic.twitter.com/JmtKCcSLpz
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 13, 2026
The Kentucky lawmaker also voted for a War Powers Resolution to force Trump to end combat operations in Iran.
In an interview with ABC affiliate WHAS-TV published on Tuesday, Massie conceded his primary election, which takes place on Tuesday, May 19, is tight.
“The race is within the margin of error,” he said. “I think it’s going to be close. I really do. I feel like I’m going to win. I feel like the enthusiasm is on the ground here.”
Regarding his high-profile votes against Trump’s agenda, Massie responded, “It’s a question of whether you can have even the slight bit of a dissenting vote on any day at all. Because I vote with the party 90% of the time.”
“If I win, it’s going to send a big message,” he added. “Number one, there’ll be more congressmen who think independently. They already think independently. They just tell me, privately, I’m afraid to die on this hill.”
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