Solid-Blue Oregon Suddenly Looks Flippable as a New Poll Puts the Governor's Race in Toss-Up Range
A new poll indicated that deep-blue Oregon’s incumbent Democratic governor could be in deep trouble.
The poll by DHM Research showed Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan ahead of Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek by 2 percentage points, according to KOBI-TV.
Drazan challenged Kotek in 2022, but lost by roughly 3 percentage points, according to KTTH-AM.
Drazan is hoping to be the first Republican governor of Oregon since Victor Atiyeh, who left office in 1987.
I also know democrats who are voting for Drazan. Oregonians are done and fed up. Get out and talk to people. We need change. https://t.co/vXzvt9Uj55
— Conservative in Oregon (@oregonducksmama) September 15, 2026
The September 11 poll of 600 likely voters gave Drazan a lead of 45 percent to 43 percent. The poll conducted for the business group Grow Oregon showed Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith with 4 percent support.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it,” Drazan campaign strategist Trey Rosser said, according to KTTH.
Democrats are at risk of losing OREGON, multiple polls have had Republican Christine Drazan leading https://t.co/ryBaR02rCU
— Michael Casey (@MichaelCasey_) September 15, 2026
“Four years ago, Tina Kotek made big promises on homelessness, housing, education, and affordability, but today, Oregonians are paying more, getting less, and watching the same problems get worse,” Rosser said.
DHM pollster John Horvick noted that in 2022, Drazan was leading in the polls until the final month of the election.
Kotek’s campaign noted that many voters have yet to make up their minds, according to Oregon Live.
“There are still a lot of voters who are undecided in this race, but the choice couldn’t be any clearer,” Federico Araujo, communications director for Kotek’s campaign, said in a statement.
The poll found Kotek is not performing up to respondents’ expectations.
🚨 More good news for our campaign!
The Cook Political Report just shifted Oregon’s governor race in our direction, moving it from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat,” one rating away from “Toss Up.”
There’s still a lot of work to do. Let’s keep going! https://t.co/gmpjyIWrc1 pic.twitter.com/kuPmUViXuP
— Christine Drazan (@ChristineDrazan) September 16, 2026
Some 46 percent expressed strong disapproval, with another 13 percent in the “somewhat disapprove” category.
Only 10 percent of respondents said they strongly approved of Kotek’s efforts, with 27 percent in the “somewhat approve” category.
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