Trump Takes Lead in Newest Florida Poll as Democrats Sound the Alarm


President Donald Trump has taken the lead in Florida, leading Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden by over 2 percentage points in the latest Florida presidential poll released Thursday.

The poll released by the Trafalgar Group — a group that RealClearPolitics has called “the most accurate pollster of the cycle” — found that 47.8 percent of respondents said they would vote for Trump if the election were held today and only 45.7 percent said they would vote for Biden. Additionally, 1.8 percent said they are “leaning Trump,” while 1.2 percent said they are “leaning Biden.”

Of the respondents, only 0.7 percent said they were undecided.

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The poll was conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 28 with 1,088 likely 2020 election voters in Florida with a margin of error of 2.89 percent.

The results come as Democrats are having a turnout issue in the battleground state that holds 29 electoral votes.

Democrats are turning out lower rates in Florida’s most populous county, Miami-Dade, than Republicans this year and Democrats at this point in 2016, Politico reported.

“Democrats have a big turnout issue in the Hispanic community in Miami-Dade,” Florida-based data analyst Matt Isbell said.

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“Hispanic Democrat turnout is only 48 percent while the Republican Hispanics are at 57 percent. This large of a gap doesn’t exist in Broward or Orange. It is a Miami problem.”

Democratic elected officials and operatives said part of the problem was the Biden campaign’s decision to discourage people from knocking on doors during the pandemic.

“We did not get the kind of funding for different vendors who would do that kind of work until late in the campaign,” Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson of Florida said.

The Florida director for America Votes, an independent organization coordinating with groups to turn out voters for Biden, said they ramped up operations in the past week and had 100,000 conversations at people’s doors throughout Miami-Dade.

“We’ve got to stop the bleeding,” Joshua Geise said of the need for Democrats this weekend to stop the Republican gains in early voting.

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Steve Simeonidis, the county’s Democratic Party chair, maintained that the GOP is running out of voters.

“We’re going to continue building on our lead down here and if we keep working, we will have more record Democratic turnout on Sunday and Tuesday,” Simeonidis said.

A veteran Democratic organizer expressed concern over winning Florida.

“Look, our people hate Trump and they like Biden. But not enough of them love Biden,” the anonymous organizer told Politico.

“It also doesn’t help that the campaign reacted so late here and they didn’t help us with voter registration when we needed to be doing it.”

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Erin Coates was an editor for The Western Journal for over two years before becoming a news writer. A University of Oregon graduate, Erin has conducted research in data journalism and contributed to various publications as a writer and editor.
Erin Coates was an editor for The Western Journal for over two years before becoming a news writer. She grew up in San Diego, California, proceeding to attend the University of Oregon and graduate with honors holding a degree in journalism. During her time in Oregon, Erin was an associate editor for Ethos Magazine and a freelance writer for Eugene Magazine. She has conducted research in data journalism, which has been published in the book “Data Journalism: Past, Present and Future.” Erin is an avid runner with a heart for encouraging young girls and has served as a coach for the organization Girls on the Run. As a writer and editor, Erin strives to promote social dialogue and tell the story of those around her.
Tucson, Arizona
Graduated with Honors
Bachelor of Arts in Journalism, University of Oregon
Books Written
Contributor for Data Journalism: Past, Present and Future
Prescott, Arizona
Languages Spoken
English, French
Topics of Expertise
Politics, Health, Entertainment, Faith