With only a few days left in 2021, Americans are looking ahead to 2022 and starting to predict what changes will be happening in the House and Senate come November’s midterm elections.
In short, it’s not looking very promising for the Democrats, especially since so many Democrats have officially announced that they are not running for reelection.
This year, with Democratic President Joe Biden in the White House, the Democrats have enjoyed the advantage of holding a slim majority in the House and tie-breaking vote that gives the party control of the Senate, wielded by Vice President Kamala Harris. But all signs seem to be pointing to an oncoming “red wave” in 2022 that could flip both houses of Congress.
But with all of its 435 representatives up for election every two years, all eyes are really on the House.
Current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi should be a bit worried about her job as so many Democrats announced their retirement, or run for different offices.
Only 11 House Republicans will not be running for reelection in the House, while 23 Democrats are either retiring or running for a different office, according to 270ToWin.
Out of those 23 Democrats, only eight are running for other offices. The other 15 are just retiring, as NPR reported.
As Breitbart reported Monday, three of those retiring Democrats made their announcements within 24 hours of each other:
Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard of California, a member of Congress since 1993, described by The Hill as “the powerful chairwoman of an Appropriations subcommittee overseeing immigration issues.”
Rep. Stephanie Murphy of Florida, a member of Congress since 2017, whose district was expected to be carved in two by redistricting, according to Breitbart.
Rep. Albio Sires of New Jersey, a member of Congress since 2006, whom Pelosi appointed to the House Budget Committee in January, in addition to his membership on the House committees on foreign affairs and transportation and infrastructure.
Meanwhile, four current Republican representatives are running for the Senate, one is running in a gubernatorial race, another for attorney general, and one is running for secretary of state.
It should not come as a complete shock to either Democrats or Republicans that the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way for 2022. Historically, whatever party controls the White House tends to lose some seats in Congress in the midterms, as Brookings’ data shows.
Democrats can see the writing on the wall.
“When you’ve only got a three- or four-vote majority and you see people who are in tough districts announcing that they’re not running for reelection, yeah, everybody worries about what’s ahead,” said retiring Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois, former chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, according to CNN.
Meanwhile, Politico national correspondent David Siders is already forecasting doom for Democrats in Congress, writing, “The House? Likely gone. The Senate? A crapshoot.”
Add to the already dim predictions the fact that the Build Back Better bill will likely not pass the Senate (since Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announced he would not vote for it) and the Democrats find themselves in a real hole.
“If we could get the Build Back Better plan passed and get a strong voting rights bill passed, Democrats will have a strong possibility of at least keeping the Senate,” said Hendrell Remus, chairman of the Tennessee Democratic Party, told Siders.
But now with the Build Back Better bill all but dead in the water, one more hope for the Democrats goes out the window.
There is still nearly a year ahead before the votes are actually cast and a lot could change in that time, but as 2021 draws to a close, 2022 is not looking terribly promising for the Democrats.
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