Buttigieg Surges to Surprising Lead in New Iowa Poll as Bloomberg Is Dead on Arrival
South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg surged to the top of the pack in a new poll that asked Iowa Democrats whom they support in the 2020 presidential race.
Buttigieg garnered 22 percent of support in a survey conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The poll of “451 Iowa voters who are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses in February 2020” was conducted between Nov. 7 and Nov. 11, the institute said.
The results reveal some big changes from August, when Monmouth had Buttigieg polling at 8 percent support.
Buttigieg’s rise in support has come as former Vice President Joe Biden appears to be losing ground. Biden was garnering 26 percent support in August but is now at 19 percent.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s support dropped two points since August, from 20 percent to 18 percent.
Meanwhile, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has gained ground, jumping from 8 percent support in August to 13 percent in November.
No other Democratic candidate had more than 5 percent support in the November poll, though it’s worth noting that California Sen. Kamala Harris has seen her support drop from 12 percent in August to 3 percent.
NEW Iowa Monmouth poll, @PeteButtigieg in top slot —->
Buttigieg – 22%
Biden – 19%
Warren – 18%
Sanders – 13%
Klobuchar – 5%
Harris – 3%
Steyer – 3%
Yang – 3%
Everyone else at 2% or below.
— Elena Schneider (@ec_schneider) November 12, 2019
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is openly considering a 2020 run but has yet to make up his mind, is not a popular candidate in Iowa.
Bloomberg had less than 1 percent support in the poll, and his unfavorability rating is at 48 percent, compared with just 17 percent of respondents who said they view him favorably.
“Reports suggest that Bloomberg will skip the February contests if he does get into the race,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth Polling Institute, said.
“With dismal numbers like these, it’s easy to see why,” Murray said. “But I really cannot imagine that Democrats in the Super Tuesday states would be significantly more receptive to him than Iowa voters.”
Buttigieg, meanwhile, was the second choice of 15 percent of voters in the poll, compared with 17 percent for Warren, 12 percent for Sanders and 10 percent for Biden.
Overall, Buttigieg was the first or second choice of a combined 37 percent of the voters polled.
IOWA DEM CAUCUS POLL: #2020Dem preference:
1st choice (1st+2nd combined)
22% (37) @PeteButtigieg
19% (29) @JoeBiden
18% (35) @EWarren
13% (25) @BernieSanders
5% (14) @AmyKlobuchar
3% (9) @KamalaHarris
3% (6) @TomSteyer
3% (4) @AndrewYang#IowaCaucus https://t.co/XOFMAFXkxc
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) November 12, 2019
Buttigieg also had the highest favorability rating among Democratic presidential candidates in the state, at 73 percent.
“Buttigieg is emerging as a top pick for a wide variety of Iowa Democrats,” Murray said.
“While he has made nominally bigger gains among older caucusgoers, you really can’t pigeonhole his support to one particular group. He is doing well with voters regardless of education or ideology.”
According to the Washington Examiner, the Monmouth poll represents the first time that Buttigieg has led any state or national poll since announcing his White House bid in April.
In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Buttigieg is at 19.7 percent support, just 0.3 percentage points behind Warren’s 20 percent, though he’s leading Biden (17 percent) and Sanders (16.3 percent).
Nationwide, it’s something of a different story, as Buttigieg is in fourth place, with just 7.5 percent support.
Of course, many voters have yet to make up their minds at this point in the election cycle.
Just 28 percent of respondents in the Monmouth Iowa poll said they were “firmly decided” on their choice of candidate.
A whopping 61 percent said they were “open” to changing their minds.
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