Census Shift in Electoral College Map Could Make the Difference for Trump in '24
Former President Donald Trump would be the likely beneficiary of changes in the Electoral College map from the results of the 2020 census should he face President Joe Biden next November.
The GOP gained a slight edge going into 2024 with red states such as Florida and Texas picking up Electoral College votes, while blue states such as California, New York and Illinois lost them.
Ballotpedia noted that 13 states gained or lost electoral votes following the census.
The Electoral College vote is determined by adding the number of House members to the two senators each state has.
Texas, the nation’s second most populous state, gained two additional congressional districts.
Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each picked up one.
Meanwhile, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each lost one.
Biden won the 2020 race 306-232 in the Electoral College.
However, with the new electoral vote breakdown in place, Biden’s win in 2020 would have dipped slightly to 303-235, according to the site 270 to Win.
Those three votes could make the difference in 2024, based on the results of a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey published Thursday.
The poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona (47 to 43 percent), Georgia (48 to 43 percent), Wisconsin (46 to 44 percent) and Pennsylvania (46 to 45 percent) in a head-to-head matchup for the White House.
The 45th president also leads Biden in North Carolina (47 to 43 percent), which Trump won by 1.3 percent in 2020.
The survey found the matchup is dead even in Michigan at 44 percent a piece.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released in September had similar results, but with Trump ahead in Michigan and Nevada too.
New Reuters poll released yesterday shows Trump leading Biden in 7 swing states, by an average of 6 pts.
This map shows how Trump will win a landslide in the Electoral College, if the numbers hold true.
Trump 312, Biden 226 pic.twitter.com/yU9M1y3PVW
— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) September 16, 2023
If Trump, as the GOP nominee, were to carry Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (where he has the largest leads in the Bloomberg poll) in 2024, while holding on to all the states he won in 2020, he would be elected the 47th president under the new apportionment of electoral votes.
Trump’s total would be 272 to Biden’s 266.
If the pre-census 2020 allotment were still in place and Trump flipped those three states, each candidate would have 269 votes and the House of Representatives would have to pick the winner.
So the results of the 2020 census just might make the difference in who is elected president in 2024.
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