Bad News for Biden: Trump Showing Sizable Leads in Multiple 2024 Battleground States
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in multiple key swing states he lost to the Democrat in 2020, according to a new poll.
The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey published Thursday showed Trump ahead of Biden in Arizona (47 to 43 percent), Georgia (48 to 43 percent), Pennsylvania (46 to 45 percent) and Wisconsin (46 to 44 percent) in a head-to-head matchup for the White House.
The 45th president also leads Biden in North Carolina (47 to 43 percent), which Trump won by 1.3 percent in 2020.
The survey found the matchup is dead even in Michigan at 44 percent a piece.
The only swing state in the poll that Trump is losing to Biden is Nevada, where the president holds a 3 percent advantage (46 to 43 percent).
Bloomberg reported the survey was conducted before Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would be running as an independent in the 2024 presidential race.
Former Harvard University professor Cornel West announced this month that he will be running as an independent as well.
It’s unknown how their candidacies would impact a Trump-Biden matchup.
However, the poll did provide an early indication of how third parties might factor into the 2024 election.
“Looking at registered voters across the seven swing states in the aggregate, President Joe Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points on a ballot including Biden, Trump, a Libertarian candidate, a Green Party candidate and a No Labels candidate,” Morning Consult reported. “In a forced head-to-head between Biden and Trump, Trump continues to lead Biden by 4 points overall.”
Bloomberg noted third parties could play a big role in some states, including Nevada.
“Biden is winning the state by 3 percentage points in a head-to-head with Trump, but is losing by 3 points when third parties are included. Both results are within the state’s 4-point margin of error,” the outlet reported.
Bloomberg News/Morning Consult surveyed 5,023 registered voters in the seven swing states. The poll was conducted Oct. 5-10 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percent.
Trump leads Biden in key swing states, per our survey with @business:
AZ
Biden: 43%
Trump: 47%GA
Biden: 43%
Trump: 48%MI
Biden: 44%
Trump: 44%NV
Biden: 46%
Trump: 43%NC
Biden: 43%
Trump: 47%PA
Biden: 45%
Trump: 46%WI
Biden: 44%
Trump: 46%https://t.co/ht2f2Sk2Wq pic.twitter.com/kAceURs9fv— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) October 19, 2023
The survey found Trump is leading Biden by large margins on issues including immigration, the economy, crime, U.S.-China relations and the Russia-Ukraine war.
The leading GOP candidate has a 17 percent lead over Biden in handling immigration.
Voters trust Trump more with the economy, where he has a 14 percentage point lead, and the advantage increases to 22 percent among independents.
In dealing with crime, his lead is 13 percent; U.S.-China relations, 11 percent; and the Russia-Ukraine war, 7 percent.
Biden enjoys his greatest advantage with voters on the issues of climate change, 13 percent, and abortion, 5 percent.
Thirteen months from Election Day, Biden lacks the backing of 14% of swing state voters who supported him three years ago, compared with a 9-point attrition rate among Trump’s 2020 swing state supporters.
Read more: https://t.co/ApVPqlsn1p pic.twitter.com/FcEWAihgdG
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) October 19, 2023
If Trump, as the GOP nominee, were to carry Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (where he has the biggest leads in the poll) in 2024, while holding on to all the states he won in 2020, he would be elected the 47th president.
Biden won the 2020 race 306-232 in the Electoral College.
Following the 2020 Census, the GOP gained a slight edge going into 2024 with red states such as Florida and Texas picking up Electoral College votes, while blue states such as California, New York and Illinois lost them.
The Electoral College vote is determined by adding the number of House members to the two senators each state has.
With the current breakdown in place, Biden’s win in 2020 would have been 303 to 235.
If the results were flipped in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, Trump would have 272 votes to Biden’s 266.
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