Democrat Advantage over Republicans on Generic Ballot Hits New Low
The Real Clear Politics average of polls in the generic ballot for the 2018 midterms shows the Democrat advantage is below five points for the first time since the statistic started being tracked in April of last year.
The RCP average found the Democrats now have a 4.7-point advantage.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll included in that average — conducted from May 11-15 — gave the Democrats just a 1 percent advantage.
Dozens of times over the course of the last year, various polls had been published showing Democrats with a double-digit lead heading into the midterms.
The most recent was a Reuters/Ipsos survey, conducted in the third week of April, which had Democrats up 11 points over Republicans.
John Nolte, writing for Breitbart, gave some historical context, noting that in 2014 the GOP had a 2.4 percent advantage in the RCP average and picked up 13 House seats.
In 2010, Republicans had a 9.4 percent lead and regained control of the House of Representatives, picking up 63 seats.
In 2006, the Democrats had a strong 11.5 percent advantage, but were only able to grab 31 seats. Still, they did retake the majority in the process.
To reclaim the House this November, Democrats must flip 23 Republican seats.
Republicans are in a strong position to pick up spots on the Senate side. Twenty-six seats currently held by Democrats are in play in November, compared to just nine Republican seats.
Of these, The Cook Political Report lists five Democrat seats as “toss-ups,” as opposed to just three of the seats currently occupied by the GOP. Additionally, two other Senate races are rated as ‘lean D.”
Of the seven Democrat senators seen as vulnerable, six of them represent states President Donald Trump won in 2016.
The Washington Examiner said one issue that is boosting GOP candidates’ chances is the rising popularity of the Republican tax bill.
Weeks before its passage in December, multiple polls showed support for the legislation at 29 percent, with between 54 and 56 percent in opposition.
By February of this year, a New York Times poll showed 51 percent favored it, while 46 percent opposed it.
Both Trump and House Speaker Paul Ryan have credited the legislation with spurring economic growth and contributing to the U.S. having the lowest unemployment rate (3.9 percent) since 2000.
Nolte concluded, “At least as of now, the GOP has every reason to be happier than Democrats with these polls and the even more important trends.”
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