Almost from the moment President Donald Trump took office, Democrats and their media allies have crowed that they would take back control of Congress from Republicans in a massive “blue wave” of Democrat voters in the 2018 midterm elections.
According to The Daily Wire, the media have seen fit to remind everyone of this “fact” on a fairly regular basis.
However, new information has emerged from a top Democrat political action committee, based on its own internal poll numbers, that implied Democrats may not have as much of an advantage as they projected.
The Priorities USA super PAC just released a memo with internal polling numbers that show President Trump’s approval rating has risen steadily since the start of the new year — amid constant attacks, no less — while the Democrat advantage on 2018 generic ballots had shrunk to just a four point lead.
McClatchy reported that the memo proceeded to warn Democrats that if they wished to regain their lead in the generic ballot polls and assure themselves of a victory in 2018, they needed to focus more on economic and health care issues and stop wasting time and energy attacking Trump over petty and insignificant things … such as his tweets.
“While still on track for a successful November, the extent of Democratic gains will be blunted if Democrats do not reengage more aggressively in speaking to the economic and health care priorities of voters,” the Priorities USA memo states. “There’s no question that Trump benefits when a critique of his tax and health care policies is not front and center — especially when voters are hearing Trump’s side of the story on the economy.”
“When voters have heard messages from both Democrats and Republicans on the tax bill, Democrats have won,” the memo continues. “Unfortunately, that debate has been relatively one-sided recently and voters have not heard nearly as much from Democrats.”
While there may be some truth to that, it’s laughable to suggest that the debate has been one-sided or there has been little or no criticism of Trump’s tax policies by Democrats. Is everyone enjoying the “crumbs” they received from the tax reform bill?
The super PAC’s internal polling showed that Democrats held a 46-42 percent lead over Republicans on the generic ballot, and while Trump’s overall approval rating may be negative — thanks in part to non-stop media attacks — he nevertheless garnered positive support for his economic and tax policies, and even his rating on health care had improved significantly since last year.
The internal poll numbers from Priorities USA were actually a bit bleaker than the polling average compiled by Real Clear Politics, which placed Democrats with a near 7-point lead over Republicans, 45.6-38.7 percent.
However, that is down nearly half from the 13-point lead Democrats held as recently as Christmas, when they edged Republicans by a margin of 49.1 to 36.1 percent.
Perhaps even more frightening for Democrats, since it completely undercuts their narrative that the economy and health care are winning issues for them, is the most recent poll put out by Politico/Morning Consult, which actually showed Republicans holding a 1-point lead over their Democrat counterparts on the generic ballot, 39-38 percent, with roughly 23 percent of voters remaining undecided for now.
“Not only have Republicans increased support on the generic congressional ballot, they are now trusted more to handle the most important issue when voters head to the polls: the economy,” stated Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief researcher, Kyle Dropp. “In mid-December, 39 percent of voters said they trusted Democrats more to handle the economy, compared to 38 percent who said Republicans. Today, 43 percent say Republicans and 32 percent say Democrats.”
On top of that, Republicans held a 19-point advantage on national security, a 9-point advantage on the issue of jobs, and a 6-point lead on immigration. Meanwhile, the double-digit advantage Democrats once held on health care has dwindled to a mere 4-points.
Furthermore, that poll also placed Trump at dead even in terms of his approval rating, with 47 percent both approving and disapproving of the job he has done thus far.
Though Democrats may gain a few seats in Congress in the mid-term, it is looking increasingly more unlikely that they will wrestle control away from Republicans in a “blue wave” — that said, there is still plenty of time until election day and stranger things have happened, so Republican voters still need to get out and support the president by keeping Congress in the hands of his own party.
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