The final results of the 2020 Census are not in yet, but preliminary evidence indicates that, in the elections of 2022, six to seven House seats could flip from Democrat to Republican as a result of the reapportionment that will follow the final tally later this year.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her fellow Democrats now rule by only a five-seat margin.
The big winner will be Texas, which is likely to pick up three additional seats. Florida is likely to gain two.
Among red states, North Carolina, Montana and Arizona are likely to gain one seat each.
But among blue states, Oregon and Colorado might pick up one seat each as well.
The net possible result: six new red seats.
The big loser will be New York state, which is likely to lose two of its 27 House seats.
Among blue states, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Rhode Island might lose a seat each for a total possible Democratic loss of seven seats.
Among red states, Alabama and West Virginia could also each lose a seat. So could the quintessential purple state of Pennsylvania.
But the legislatures and the governorship in Alabama and West Virginia are in Republican hands so those two states are likely to have reapportionment lines that favor the GOP.
Pennsylvania, however, has a Republican legislature and a Democratic governor, so its new district lines might fall either way.
(Ultimately, of course, the number of winners and losers has to even out. The House will stay at 435 members.)
The Democrats have included a provision in HR 1 requiring the use of independent bipartisan commissions in reapportionment. However, the bill specifies that this provision would not take effect until 2024.
So the Republican Party is likely to have a net gain of six or seven seats in the House, auguring well for the future of our country.
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