Two weeks out is a dangerous vantage from which to predict Senate races, particularly with the presidential race in flux. But as of now, the Democrats have a very slight edge in the race to capture the Senate.
Republicans now rule the upper chamber 53-47. Add one Republican gain coming this year in Alabama and you have 54-46.
Here’s the story from there:
One Republican seat seems to be lost already: In Colorado, former Gov. John Hickenlooper sports a 10-point lead over Republican incumbent Cory Gardner, 50-40.
Three other Republicans, in Arizona, Maine and Iowa, are behind but could catch up.
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa is behind Theresa Greenfield, the Democrat, by four points, 47-43. Some polls have Ernst closer, and Trump should carry Iowa as he did last time.
In Maine, longtime RINO Susan Collins is running seven points behind Democrat Sara Gideon, 47-40. Maine will go for Biden, but Collins has a long record of surviving near-death experiences and could well still win.
And in Arizona, Republican Sen. Martha McSally is also behind Democrat Mark Kelly, 50-45. She has been trailing all race but can’t be written off. And a recent Trafalgar Poll (a reputable and usually accurate Republican firm) has her only two behind, 47-45.
If we lose all three (in addition to Colorado) we will have a 50-50 tie in the Senate and will lose control unless Trump-Pence wins and the vice president can deliver control to the Republicans.
Beyond those states, Republicans are doing pretty well.
We seem to have eluded a bullet in North Carolina as Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham has become mired in a sexting scandal that involved cheating on his wife. Cunningham had led Republican incumbent Thom Tillis all campaign. But now the Emerson Poll has him clinging to a one-point margin over Tillis, 45-44. Tillis’ momentum and the scandal — as it sinks in — should save the seat for the GOP.
In a number of other states, Republican incumbents had seemed to be in trouble but appear to have pulled ahead.
In Alaska, Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is running three points ahead.
In Montana, Sen. Steve Daines seems to have pulled ahead of Democratic former Gov. Steve Bullock 48-45 in the Real Clear Politics average.
In South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham has gained the upper hand over Democrat Jaime Harrison 46-40 in The New York Times/Siena poll. Perhaps he was helped by his excellent conduct of the confirmation hearing of Amy Coney Barrett.
Texas and Kansas, once thought to be close, now appear safely Republican.
There is still time to influence these races. If the Democrats take control of the Senate and Biden wins, they will repeal the filibuster rule, pack the Supreme Court and admit D.C. as a state (and perhaps Puerto Rico as well), giving them four extra senators. It will be the end of checks and balances and we will be entirely at their mercy.
So please send money to Collins (even if it hurts) and to Ernst and McSally.
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