What will happen next in the Democratic primary?
Here are my predictions:
1. Bernie Sanders, as I’ve predicted, sweeps Iowa and New Hampshire.
And maybe Nevada, too.
Sanders is leading a movement, a secular crusade that easily overcomes, in both intensity and excitement, a regular political campaign.
That movement should lead him to victory in at least those first two states.
2. Next, Obama tries to rally the troops for a last-ditch stand in South Carolina, the only stand-alone state with enough of a black vote to matter.
But in his effort to stop Bernie and drive Biden, he throws Warren under the bus, excluding her as the real alternative for the left.
Biden wins South Carolina, but the damage to Warren makes it impossible for the only candidate who can stop Bernie to do so on Super Tuesday.
After Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Biden is used up despite a win in South Carolina.
3. Sanders sweeps the Super Tuesday states and Michigan the week after.
Then two other candidates emerge.
4. Bloomberg and Hillary become the only ways left to stop Bernie, but Sanders’ Super Tuesday win likely gives him enough delegates to survive no matter what.
After Super Tuesday, the end is in sight.
5. Hopelessly torn, with the center in open revolt (see McGovern 1972), Sanders wins the nomination.
And ensures a massive GOP win in November.
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