The 2020 election is 17 months away, but a reading of tea leaves in the form of projection models viewed through the lens of economics shows President Donald Trump with a formidable advantage, according to a published report.
Steven Rattner, a former counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, wrote an Op-Ed in The New York Times headlined “Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind.”
Rattner cited three economic-political models affirming Trump’s solid position.
Ray Fair, a professor at Yale University, developed one model that estimates Trump could garner 54 percent of the 2020 vote.
“Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy — and that’s more or less consensus for between now and the election — that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin,” Fair said, according to Politico.
Rattner said other projection models were in Trump’s favor.
“Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College,” Rattner wrote.
Both said no estimate is a guarantee, but Trump’s economic numbers look strong. “If the election were held today, Trump would win according to the models and pretty handily,” Zandi said.
“Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and a regular Trump critic, has been road-testing a dozen different economic models for the 2020 race. At this point, Trump wins in all 12 — and quite comfortably in most of them” https://t.co/kdGjMs7Hgm
— Alexander Panetta (@Alex_Panetta) March 21, 2019
Zandi said Trump would need to remain popular to win.
“In three or four of them it would be pretty close. He’s got low gas prices, low unemployment and a lot of other political variables at his back. The only exception is his popularity, which matters a lot. If that falls off a cliff, it would make a big difference,” Zandi said.
Luskin said Democrats can’t compete with the Trump economy.
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it. I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that,” Luskin said. “It would have to slow a lot to still be not pretty good.”
Another commentator agreed.
“While Democrats are turning toward socialism and are wasting time attacking the president, the American economy is booming due to President Trump’s tax cuts and deregulatory policies,” Boris Epshteyn, chief political commentator for Sinclair Broadcast Group, told NBC.
Epshteyn was a special assistant to Trump in the White House.
“Fifty-year low unemployment, over 3 percent GDP growth, and a strong rise in wages are resulting in the over 55 percent approval rating for the president on the economy,” he said.
“Going into 2020, the Trump economy is putting Democrats in an impossible position of trying to come up with ways they could do better.”
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