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Kamala Harris' Lead Vanishes, Hit Hard by New Polls as Trump's Momentum Takes Over

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New polling shows that Vice President Kamala Harris’ slight lead over former President Donald Trump in battleground states has evaporated, despite nearly a solid month of positive media coverage since entering the race.

Previous polling by the Cook Political Report published last week had Harris ahead of Trump in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Axios.

Similarly a New York Times/Siena College poll, also released last week, found Harris with a slight lead in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

However, a newer survey conducted by Navigator Research published Tuesday shows the race is essentially tied across Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Broken down individually, Trump is ahead of Harris by one percentage point in Arizona (46 to 45 percent) and two points in Pennsylvania (46 to 44 percent), while the other three states are tied.

The poll was conducted from July 31 to Aug. 8 among 600 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Navigator survey is consistent with the RealClear Polling average of battleground states, which also includes Nevada and Georgia.

As of Aug. 21, Trump holds a 0.2 percent combined advantage over Harris across the seven states.

Trump is leading in all but Wisconsin and Michigan, where Harris holds a 1 percentage point lead and 2 point lead, respectively.

Will Kamala Harris lose?

The vice president is polling better than President Joe Biden was in the battleground state before he exited the race last month.

Trump held a more than a 4 percent lead across the seven states in the RCP average and his advantage had been growing when Biden’s departure was announced July 21.

CNN analyst and former Obama administration official Van Jones expressed concern about how close the race is Monday night at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

“We don’t want to be tied. I don’t like being tied with Donald Trump, because we’ve had now 20-plus days of positive press,” he said. “We should not be tied. We want to pull ahead. That’s our opportunity this week.”

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CNN political reporter David Urban added, “This campaign, the Harris campaign, has been flawless for the past 28, 30 days, and it’s a tied race.”

“That’s scary. We’ve got to go,” Jones interjected.

“They’re doing the best they can, and it’s tied. That’s really important,” Urban said.

Former Barack Obama presidential campaign strategist David Axelrod shared a similar sentiment on CNN Sunday night, while acknowledging Harris is doing better than Biden was.

“[T]hings have changed dramatically,” he said. “But this is still a very competitive race. If the election were today, I’m not sure who would win. And I think it may well be President Trump because it’s an Electoral College fight.”

Nationally, as of Aug. 21, Harris has a 1.6 percentage point lead over Trump in the RealClear Polling average. On the same date in 2020, Biden led Trump by 7.6 percent, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton was beating him by 5.3 percent.

Axelrod further explained, “Remember, Joe Biden won by 7 million votes nationally, nationally last time, and a margin of 45,000 votes, or 44,000 votes in the three closest battleground states combined.”

So, Trump is sitting in a significantly better position in 2024 than he was in 2020.

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Randy DeSoto has written more than 3,000 articles for The Western Journal since he began with the company in 2015. He is a graduate of West Point and Regent University School of Law. He is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths" and screenwriter of the political documentary "I Want Your Money."
Randy DeSoto wrote and was the assistant producer of the documentary film "I Want Your Money" about the perils of Big Government, comparing the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Randy is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths," which addresses how leaders have appealed to beliefs found in the Declaration of Independence at defining moments in our nation's history. He has been published in several political sites and newspapers.

Randy graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point with a BS in political science and Regent University School of Law with a juris doctorate.
Birthplace
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Nationality
American
Honors/Awards
Graduated dean's list from West Point
Education
United States Military Academy at West Point, Regent University School of Law
Books Written
We Hold These Truths
Professional Memberships
Virginia and Pennsylvania state bars
Location
Phoenix, Arizona
Languages Spoken
English
Topics of Expertise
Politics, Entertainment, Faith




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