Philly Makes Last-Minute Election Change, Expect Vote Count to Be Slowed Down
Just what everyone was hoping to hear today, now that Election Day 2022 has finally dawned: Vote counting in one of the most contested races in the country may be delayed due to a last-minute election change.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that this move will probably enhance, rather than detract from, election integrity.
The idea is to “catch possible double votes,” according to The Philadelphia Inquirer. (The story itself is behind a paywall, but a summary and link are available here.)
The city commissioners, who oversee elections in the City of Brotherly Love, voted 2-1 to reinstate the vote-verifying process, reversing a decision they made less than a week ago. Republicans had sued to get the commissioners to do just that, but that suit failed yesterday.
The commissioners went forward anyway.
“The procedure, known as poll book reconciliation, flags mail ballots submitted by voters who also voted in person,” according to The Inquirer. “It’s time-consuming and labor-intensive — and will slow down the reporting of Philadelphia’s election results.”
One Democrat and one Republican voted to use poll book reconciliation, while the other Democrat on the three-member board voted against.
“I want to be very clear that when there are conversations that occur later this evening about whether or not Philadelphia has counted all of their ballots that the reason that some ballots would not be counted is that Republicans targeted Philadelphia — and only Philadelphia — to force us to conduct a procedure that no other county does,” said Seth Bluestein, the Republican commissioner.
Americans across the country will be watching for the result of the Senate race between Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz and Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. RealClearPolitics predicted an Oz win by a point or two, though it conceded that the race was close enough to be considered a toss up. FiveThirtyEight also rated the contest a toss up, but gave Oz a 57 percent chance of winning.
Along with races in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, the Pennsylvania race was considered key to Republicans taking control of the Senate when new members take office in January. FiveThirtyEight as of Tuesday morning estimated the chance of Republicans doing so at about 59 percent.
Less likely to go the GOP’s way is the gubernatorial race in the state, where Josh Shapiro has enjoyed a consistent high-single-digit to low-double-digit lead in most polling over Doug Mastriano, despite the latter’s ringing endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
“We may not know all the winners of elections for a few days. It takes time to count all legitimate ballots in a legal and orderly manner,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Monday, according to Fox News. “That’s how this is supposed to work.”
That’s actually true, making it one of the few statements ever to come out of Jean-Pierre’s mouth with which I can’t find fault.
In another close Senate race that could decide control of the chamber, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt appeared to be leading incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Mastro, who is also a former state attorney general, by a few points.
Hershel Walker has been showing a similar slim lead in recent polling against incumbent Democratic Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, according to RealClearPolitics, and Blake Masters has pulled into a virtual tie with incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona.
Currently, the Senate is divided evenly between Democrats and Republicans, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote in favor of the Democrats when necessary. RealClearPolitics predicted that balance to shift in Republicans’ favor after tonight, with three Republican pickups resulting in a slim 53-47 Republican majority.
No serious handicapper believes the House will remain in Democratic hands after the midterms, regardless of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s claims to the contrary.
The question is how much of a majority Republicans will hold in the People’s House once all the votes are counted. Some models predict as much as a 261-174, 87-member Republican majority in the next Congress, but something along the lines of 244-191, or a 53-member majority for the GOP, seems most likely.
The answer to the question no one except my wife has been asking: My prediction for congressional results tonight (or whenever we actually get them) —
House goes to GOP 250 to 185.
Senate goes to GOP 53 to 47.Tweet #BlueTsunami2022 all you want.
— The Upper Cut (@georgeupper) November 8, 2022
Of course, it may very well be a while before we know for sure — especially when it comes to the ballots cast by Philadelphia voters.
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