One tremendous benefit that an economically successful president is able to enjoy during a re-election campaign is a strong showing at the polls.
President Donald Trump, thanks to the booster shot he administered to an economy that was struggling under former President Barack Obama, is in a prime position to take advantage.
According to The Hill, Trump’ re-election chances are looking good for 2020, as indicated by three notable modelers that predict a Trump victory — basing the predicted victory off of economic data and given the fact that he’s an incumbent.
The Ray Fair of Yale model — which predicted Obama’s 2008 popular vote margin “within a fraction of a percentage point” — points to a Trump win in 2020. Steve Rattner, an Obama-era adviser, published the data.
The same model also predicted Obama’s 2012 popular vote number within two-tenths of a percentage point.
Even more impressive, especially in the face of numerous polls that had former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton easily winning the 2016 election, is the fact the Ray Fair of Yale model predicted Trump’s 2016 electoral victory. Its only flaw was that it was 5.5 points off on Trump’s popular vote count.
“In other words, a more ‘normal’ Republican would likely have won the popular vote by a substantial margin (instead of losing it by three million votes),” Rattner wrote in his report.
But overall, all of those predictions were laser-accurate. And that data presumably has many Democratic presidential candidates re-thinking strategy for their 2020 campaigns — especially in such a crowded pool of competitors.
Moody’s Analytics’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, bolstered the prediction of a Trump victory based on data from 12 additional models.
An electoral analysis by Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics also handed Trump the victory, Rattner noted in his report.
The advice from Rattner to Trump on winning next year’s race is plain and simple.
“So, the question for 2020 may well be whether Mr. Trump can overcome the majority of voters’ poor perception of him and use a good economy and incumbency to win re-election,” he said.
Make no mistake — as close as it seems, there’s a long way to go before voters fill in the dots at the polls. And if you couple that with the reputation-beating that traditional polls took in 2016 (as most of them were wrong), it’s still anyone’s game at this point.
Given the historic accuracy of these highly scientific models, there’s little doubt that Trump is on the path to victory. All he has to do to keep his seat in the Oval Office is keep the American economy steaming along and steer clear of scandals.
While this data may be new to us, you can bet that Trump’s potential Democratic challengers are well aware of the president’s momentum and probably won’t hesitate to do whatever it takes to toss a wrench in the gears.
Stock up on popcorn for the 2020 election campaign season, because it’s likely going to be a wildly entertaining one.
Truth and Accuracy
We are committed to truth and accuracy in all of our journalism. Read our editorial standards.