There are roughly two dozen Democrats vying for their party’s nomination in 2020 to take on President Donald Trump, but those efforts may be wasted energy and a moot point, as multiple signs are increasingly pointing toward Trump’s re-election.
It was recently revealed that Trump was predicted to win re-election in a landslide by a nonpartisan market research organization with a history of accurate predictions. Their prediction was based on purely economic factors, and assumed that those key metrics and indicators would stay roughly the same up until the 2020 election.
That seems to be the same conclusion reached by a significant majority of Wall Street insiders and investors, at least according to a recent survey conducted by an international investment banking firm known as RBC Capital Markets, as reported by CNBC.
It is worth noting immediately that the survey of “141 equity-focused institutional investors” was conducted after special counsel Robert Mueller had submitted his final report to the Department of Justice and it had been made clear that there was no campaign collusion with Russia, an announcement that undoubtedly lifted a cloud of uncertainty from the president’s administration.
That survey revealed that more than 70 percent of respondents believed that President Trump would win re-election in 2020.
The survey also asked about the many potential Democratic candidates who could ultimately face off against Trump, but only former Vice President Joe Biden drew any considerable level of support.
Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy for RBC, explained in a letter to clients, “Most expect Trump to win in 2020, but there’s still some nervousness around the event.”
She added that 67 percent of survey respondents “believe that Joe Biden is seen as the most acceptable Democratic candidate by the stock market for the White House. No other candidate got a significant number of votes.”
Calvasina pointed out that Biden leads most polls of potential 2020 Democratic candidates, typically followed by independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. However, she wrote, “Sanders is seen by our Survey respondents as the second least acceptable Democratic candidate by the stock market.”
So if Sanders is viewed by Wall Street as the “second least acceptable Democratic candidate,” who was deemed the worst possible candidate for Wall Street? That dubious honor would go to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has all but declared ideological war on the financial industry over the years.
There is no question that financial markets are particularly sensitive to who holds the presidency and what that president’s agenda may be. Case in point is the stunning revival of the stock market in the aftermath of Trump’s 2016 election, as the market rallied up nearly 500 points in two days following that event, and increased as much as 8 percent overall between then and the end of the year.
The spike was due to the confidence inspired in the markets by Trump’s election and the promise of tax cuts and regulatory reform that would create a much more business-friendly environment in the United States than had been the case under the prior administration.
Of course, predictions from market watchers and insiders aren’t always 100 percent accurate, with the 2016 election again being a perfect example. Most likely due to the biased media coverage, a CNBC Fed survey during that cycle found that some 80 percent of respondents believed failed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win, even though a majority of them didn’t want her to win at all.
Perhaps with that sort of inaccuracy and uncertainty in mind, Calvasina noted that some 40 percent of respondents to the survey said they had already made changes or were planning to make changes to their portfolios ahead of the election, if only as a way to create a hedge of protection against the election of a Democrat with a decidedly non-friendly attitude toward Wall Street.
There is little doubt that, while some may not particularly like the president on a personal level, they absolutely love the impact his agenda has had on Wall Street and the economy as a whole. Business is booming, jobs and wealth are being created, and wages are rising, as are the value of investment and retirement portfolios.
If the folks on Wall Street want the economic Trump boom to continue — and really, who doesn’t want the economy to continue soaring to new heights — they would be wise to make that opinion known and do whatever they can to help ensure that it happens, lest they want to spend the next four years scrambling to protect their assets, industry and livelihoods from the grabby hands of Democrats.
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