Ariz. Senate Race Tightens in Latest Polling, GOP Sees Trump-Backed Kari Lake in Dead Heat


Multiple public polls show the U.S. Senate race in Arizona between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Ruben Gallego tightening.

Additionally, an internal Republican poll finds Lake with a 1 percent lead in the contest.

The two are running to replace independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who is not seeking re-election.

Lake faces Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb in the state’s July 30 GOP primary, while Gallego, an Arizona congressman, is unopposed in the Democratic race.

According to the political site FiveThirtyEight, public polls as recently as last month found Gallego with a 10 to 13 percent lead over Lake.

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However, in the most recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey, the Democrat held only a 4 percent advantage.

The poll was conducted June 13-18 among a sample of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

The Emerson poll came on top of an AARP survey, conducted May 28 to June 4 among 1,358 likely voters, that showed Lake trailing Gallego by just 3 percent, 48 to 45 percent.

Additionally, Axios reported Thursday that it obtained a National Republican Senatorial Committee memo to donors saying its internal polling has the race as a dead heat.

Will Kari Lake win Arizona?

The committee described public polling in the race as “misleading.”

“The NRSC thinks undecided voters in the Arizona Senate contest will break for Lake, arguing [President Joe] Biden’s popularity is under water with that bloc of voters,” Axios said. “The memo also points to former President [Donald] Trump’s polling lead over Biden in the state, saying his performance will influence down ballot races.”

Lake shared what appears to be the memo on social media Thursday evening that Axios reported about, along with a message she said came directly from Trump.

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The Real Clear Polling average shows Trump with a 4.6 percent lead over Biden in the Grand Canyon State as of Friday.

In a Thursday news release, the Lake campaign said, “The latest poll in the race for U.S. Senate in Arizona shows Kari Lake leading Ruben Gallego by 1-point, 47% to 46%, among likely voters in an NRSC internal poll.”

“The poll aligns with others conducted by credible pollsters, showing the race as a statistical tie, including the bipartisan AARP Poll conducted by President Trump and Joe Biden’s pollster,” the campaign added.

“Arizonans overwhelmingly disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance. Soon, Arizonans will learn just how closely Ruben Gallego is tied to Joe Biden and his radical policies – voting with him 100% of the time – and they won’t approve of his record either,” it said.

Party control of the Senate may come down to the results in the Arizona race.

Democrats currently have a one-seat advantage in the chamber, including four independent senators who caucus with the party.

Republicans are expected to pick up the West Virginia seat currently held by retiring Democrat Joe Manchin, which would bring the breakdown to 50-50 if the party control of the seats otherwise stayed the same.

In addition to Arizona, states where Republicans have a good chance to flip a seat include Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Disclosure: Floyd Brown, one of the owners and founder of The Western Journal, is serving on a volunteer basis as chairman of Kari Lake’s Senate campaign.

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Randy DeSoto has written more than 3,000 articles for The Western Journal since he joined the company in 2015. He is a graduate of West Point and Regent University School of Law. He is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths" and screenwriter of the political documentary "I Want Your Money."
Randy DeSoto is the senior staff writer for The Western Journal. He wrote and was the assistant producer of the documentary film "I Want Your Money" about the perils of Big Government, comparing the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Randy is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths," which addresses how leaders have appealed to beliefs found in the Declaration of Independence at defining moments in our nation's history. He has been published in several political sites and newspapers.

Randy graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point with a BS in political science and Regent University School of Law with a juris doctorate.
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Graduated dean's list from West Point
United States Military Academy at West Point, Regent University School of Law
Books Written
We Hold These Truths
Professional Memberships
Virginia and Pennsylvania state bars
Phoenix, Arizona
Languages Spoken
Topics of Expertise
Politics, Entertainment, Faith