There’s a “blue wave” headed for America in November … at least, that’s what Democrats have been insisting for months.
That term refers to a liberal takeover of Congress, which would require the current minority party to re-take both the House and Senate in the 2018 midterm elections.
Early primary results in several states, however, have not been promising for Democrats. In an Ohio special election, for instance, it looks all but certain that the Republican will defeat his liberal rival. That’s one of several races the left was counting on for its “blue wave” to come true.
Now, the left may have even more bad news. According to a poll analysis from Real Clear Politics, the liberal party has an overall advantage … but if past elections are any guide, it is much too low to retake Congress.
AT this point in 2016 the Dems had a +3 generic ballot advantage.
Republicans won the House in November 2016 https://t.co/Id9xanCs2c
— Grover Norquist (@GroverNorquist) August 14, 2018
“Real Clear Politics generic ballot now has the Democrat advantage down to D+ 3.9% average,” explained Grover Norquist, summarizing the results. “Dems need to be at +6 to hope to capture House.”
The RCP study looked at many major polls from sources like CNN, Rasmussen, and Reuters, and creates projections based on those numbers.
At a glance, the polls seem to give Democrats an advantage. The problem is that below the D+ 6% threshold, the left has historically lost, most likely due to differences in voter turnout.
“At this point in 2016 the Dems had a +3 generic ballot advantage,” continued Norquist.
And what happened in 2016? Not only did Donald Trump pull off one of the biggest upsets in presidential election history, but Republicans also won the House and Senate.
As it stands right now, Republicans hold 236 out of the 435 total seats in the House, giving them a 54 percent majority.
It’s a similar story in the Senate, although the numbers are closer: Republicans have 51 seats, while Democrats hold 47. Two independents, who lean liberal, make up the difference.
That fact the “blue wave” is sputtering is good news for conservatives, but it will likely hinge on voter turnout.
During presidential election years — such as the dramatic race between Trump and Hillary Clinton — voter turnout is usually high. The White House contest draws crowds, but many of those voters stay home during midterm elections like the one coming up in November.
Midterms are arguably just as important as the presidential years, however. The decisions made by Congress have serious consequences for the nation, even if the White House isn’t up for grabs.
That’s a strong reason for Republicans to turn out in November. Casting a ballot may take only a few minutes, but the aftermath of elections can affect America for years.
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