Following Embassy Attack, US Should Respond to Iran's Provocations
On Sunday the United States carried out airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, aimed against a pro-Iranian militia, Kataib Hezbollah. At least 25 militia gunmen were killed and more than 20 were injured.
Iran has been using its proxies in Iraq to launch rockets at U.S. bases. A recent attack killed a U.S. civilian contractor and wounded several U.S. troops. It is part of the struggle between Iran and the anti-Iranian coalition, i.e., the United States and its allies in the Middle East, Israel and Sunni-led Arab states. The two sides are fighting over the future of this important and problematic region, with ramifications on both political and economic levels.
Iran had denied any connection to the firing at U.S. camps in Iraq. The Iranian regime has been heavily involved in the domestic affairs of its neighbor and does not care at all that Iraq is in an independent state. Iran’s aggressive policy did not prevent it from calling on the United States to respect Iraq’s sovereignty.
The hypocrisy of the Iranian regime knows no bounds.
On Tuesday Iraqi rioters, who were probably sent by Iran, stormed the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, breaking into the compound. The embassy has absorbed many attacks over the years; now it’s a scene for clear and bold Iranian provocation.
The Trump administration has been conducting an economic campaign against Iran, which it has called “maximum pressure.” The Iranian response has been “maximum resistance.” It includes all kinds of provocations. The biggest one was an attack on Sept. 14, when Iran’s cruise missiles and drones caused vast damages to Saudi oil facilities. The United States, which blamed Iran for that strike, retaliated by launching a secret cyberattack.
Iran might try to block the Strait of Hormuz, the gate to the Persian Gulf and the source of almost a fifth of the world’s global crude oil. The U.S. Navy has been preparing for such a scenario. Iran might confront American forces. The U.S. does not seek war but Iran might drag the United States into a skirmish that in the worst case could end in a war.
The United States needs to continue to maneuver between containing Iran and supporting its allies to avoid an escalation that might bring a major clash. This could be done by using nonmilitary measures such as soft power, a show of force, cyberwarfare and kinetic military action when it is required.
Israel, a substantial part of the anti-Iranian coalition, has been contributing its share in handling Iranian provocations, mostly the Iranian military presence in Syria. Israel is aiming at preventing Iran from turning Syria into an Iranian springboard that could threaten not only Israel but also other U.S. allies such as Jordan and the Gulf Arab states.
Israel also deals with Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iran’s proxies among the Palestinians. Defeating or at least restraining those groups will make Iran weaker as well.
There might be a serious crisis between Iran and the United States, which will not directly involve Israel. Yet Iran might wish to draw Israel into that collision. Iran can strike Israel directly or not, and also use its proxies, mostly the Lebanon-based Hezbollah. That group has up to 150,000 rockets and missiles that cover all of Israel.
The Iranian goals will be to demonstrate what an escalation between Iran and the United States might cause in the region. Iran will hope to put pressure on the United States to slow down the struggle against such as by reducing the sanctions, which have caused Iran huge problems.
Iran wants to have a nuclear weapon. If the nation actually tries to produce such an arsenal, it will be the most dangerous provocation of all. If the United States does not stop that process in time, Israel might attack Iran, with U.S. assistance, diplomatic and military, yet without putting US troops in harm’s way.
One of the main flight routes from Israel to Iran goes over the Arab Gulf states. Those countries might allow Israeli aircraft to pass through their territory and maybe even land there for a short time such as for refueling. Arab militaries would not collaborate with the Israeli Air Force — certainly not openly. Arab militaries would focus on defending their land from Iranian retribution. Iran will blame Arab Gulf states for assisting Israel whether it is true or not.
There are therefore various aspects of the ongoing struggle to handle Iran and its proxies. The anti-Iranian coalition has to stand firm to deter and block Iran by developing creative ideas on how to contain and eventually bring down the regime.
It will not necessarily cause an open conflict, but Iran has to be convinced that force will be met by force.
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