President Donald Trump’s second year in office is starting off on a positive note according to data compiled over the past year.
From Jan. 20, 2017, to Jan. 29, 2018, the Morning Consult surveyed over 800,000 voters across all 50 U.S. states asking for their approval rating of the president.
The data pulled from the survey revealed that Trump’s approval rating does sit at a 7 percent disadvantage to his disapproval rating — 44 percent to 51 percent.
However, his approval rating experienced a 4 percent increase from October and November.
As noted by the Morning Consult, this increase was likely due to an increase in support from Republican voters.
In September 2017, 43 percent of Republican voters stated that they strongly approve of Trump, compared to 48 percent in January 2018 — a 5 percent jump.
According to Allan Lichtman, a political historian at American University, Trump’s jump in approval “most fundamentally reflects the economy.” He also noted that the president “did finally get something done in Congress with the tax bill.”
In a February email, University of Pennsylvania political science professor Daniel Hopkins revealed that the passing of the tax bill likely pleased GOP voters and eased their worries.
“Any lingering worry that Trump wouldn’t be loyal to the GOP’s priorities is likely to be history,” Hopkins stated in the email.
While data from the survey appears promising, Eric Ostermeier, a University of Minnesota researcher, warned that Tump’s approval numbers are “still dangerously low.”
“Any momentum he might be experiencing now could easily be derailed by a downturn in the economic and financial indicators on which he has hung his hat,” Ostermeier stated in a Feb. 5 email.
As can be seen below, Trump’s approval among individual political parties dipped slightly over a nine-month span, however, a slight upturn can be seen among Republicans and Independents as of late.
The increase over the past few months is a cause for optimism among Senate Republicans as they head into Midterm elections. In Nevada, Trump saw his standing increase by 7 percent and by 3 percent in Arizona — two states that are targets for Senate Democrats.
And in Senate battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump has seen an approval increase of 5 percent and 2 percent respectively.
It was also noted by the Morning Consult that Trump still has a solid base in the 16 states that carried him during the 2016 presidential election.
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