Trump Still Owns the GOP and 4 Other Takeaways from the Iowa Caucuses
Former President Donald Trump so dominated the Iowa caucuses on Monday that any analysis of its results must begin with an acknowledgment of his enduring popularity among Republican voters.
Trump, in fact, shattered historical records by winning Iowa with 51 percent of the vote and a 30-point margin of victory.
For true suspense, therefore — along with a few under-the-radar takeaways — one must dig a bit deeper.
1. Trump Still Owns the GOP
The word “still” makes all the difference here. Trump took control of the GOP in 2016 and has yet to relinquish it.
Of course, one hardly needs a degree in political science to recognize the former president’s dominance. Iowa merely confirmed what national polls have said about the ongoing primary race. If anything, the caucuses did not even reflect Trump’s strength nationwide.
Furthermore, in all the post-caucus analysis of the former president’s victory, one fact stood out above the rest.
According to Reuters, 64 percent of Iowa caucus-goers had made up their minds before this month. Of those early deciders, 64 percent supported Trump.
Another entrance poll showed even fewer undecided voters in the race’s closing weeks.
ABC News reported that 80 percent of caucus-goers had made their decisions “earlier this month or before that.”
In short, most Iowa Republicans had settled on their candidate before the New Year. And a large percentage of those Republicans chose Trump.
Thus, it appears that everything the establishment has thrown at the former president — from impeachments to indictments — has only solidified his popularity among voters.
2. Trump’s Ideal Scenario Came to Pass
In the weeks preceding the caucuses, much speculation centered on how Trump’s opponents would perform.
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida exceeded polling expectations by finishing second with slightly more than 21 percent of the vote. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley finished third at 19 percent.
In a pre-caucus analysis of possible Iowa results and their likely significance, Aaron Zitner of The Wall Street Journal explained why — apart from the obvious benefit of a resounding victory — the actual outcome further helped Trump.
In a video posted to YouTube last week, Zitner presented what he regarded as the three most probable Iowa scenarios.
First, Trump could dominate the caucuses without a clear second choice emerging. “That would give us a lot of signals about where the Republican Party is right now,” Zitner said of a dominant Trump victory.
Second, Trump could post a narrow victory, but also without a clear second-place finisher.
Third, the runner-up could have a strong enough showing to emerge as Trump’s only real rival for the nomination.
Zitner’s first scenario, of course, is the one that unfolded on Monday.
Since DeSantis and Haley remained virtually deadlocked, no clear Trump alternative emerged from Iowa.
3. DeSantis and Haley: Do You Want the Good News or the Bad News?
The second- and third-place finishers in Iowa have reasons for both optimism and alarm.
DeSantis, for instance, had a stronger showing than Haley and appears to see a way forward for his campaign.
According to CNN, the Florida governor left immediately from Iowa for South Carolina before heading to New Hampshire, which will hold its primary on Jan. 23. He did this despite the fact that the South Carolina primary will not take place until Feb. 24.
Things could change, of course, but DeSantis’ early visit to South Carolina could suggest that he plans to stay in the race for the long haul.
On the other hand, many pundits fail to see a clear path for DeSantis to remain viable, let alone win.
The New York Times, for instance, called DeSantis’ Iowa performance a victory in a “Pyrrhic fight for second.” After all, the governor won key endorsements and put enormous resources into the state. But he could not make a dent in Trump’s massive base.
Furthermore, upcoming primary elections offer DeSantis none of the advantages he enjoyed in Iowa, where, according to Reuters, he courted evangelical Christian voters to no avail, losing that crucial bloc to Trump, 51-29.
Meanwhile, Haley polls well in New Hampshire. And big-money donors have lined up behind her in hopes of stopping Trump.
But coming out of Iowa, her profile appears indistinguishable from a Democrat’s.
For instance, Haley denied Trump a clean sweep of Iowa’s 99 counties when she won Johnson County by a single vote, 1,271-1,270. NPR, however, described her win in Johnson County as “indicative of the problem she faces.”
Home to the University of Iowa, Johnson County’s demographics hardly reflect the broader Republican electorate. It has, for instance, the highest percentage of Iowans who hold college degrees.
Haley also prevailed among moderates, voters with advanced degrees, and voters “who thought [President Joe] Biden legitimately won in 2020,” among other categories that do not exactly project long-term success in a Trump-dominated party.
4. The Ramaswamy Factor
After a fourth-place finish in Iowa, having earned only 7.7 percent of the vote, upstart entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy announced late Monday that he would suspend his presidential campaign.
That vote total should reflect the strength of Trump’s America First movement. After all, Ramaswamy campaigned like a younger and more verbally dexterous version of the former president.
After dropping out of the race, Ramaswamy immediately endorsed Trump. According to Fox News, the two appeared together at a New Hampshire rally on Tuesday.
Thus, the speculation regarding Trump’s potential running mate should begin to intensify. Ramaswamy would appeal to Republicans who wanted a younger and, if possible, even more anti-establishment version of Trump.
5. The Establishment Media Remains Weaponized Against Trump
In their reporting on the Iowa caucuses, the usual suspects took their shots at the former president.
According to The Guardian, for instance, Trump’s victory meant that “the stakes for democracy got even higher.”
The Associated Press described Trump as “repeatedly making false claims” about the 2020 presidential election.
Based on polling data, the AP also reported that 60 percent of caucus-goers want “substantial” changes to the federal government. And the same number of respondents expressed a lack of confidence in the legal system.
“It adds up to a portrait of a slice of the electorate eager to challenge core democratic institutions in the U.S.,” the AP wrote.
Not to be outdone, ABC News pointed to Trump’s “baseless claims of fraud” in the 2020 election.
ABC also described Ramaswamy as “leaning heavily on a hard-line message of support for Trump, culture war issues and conspiracy theories, including falsely suggesting that the Jan. 6, 2021, riot on Capitol Hill was an ‘inside job.'”
Finally, NPR mocked Republican voters as “pretty much all in on Trump’s election lies and conspiracies.”
Thus, one thing remained unchanged after the Iowa caucuses: It seems the establishment media shills have not stopped serving their powerful masters.
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