President Donald Trump is down and out, at least if you listen to the establishment media. To hear the talking heads tell it, the president’s entire administration is unraveling, and he might as well resign right now to avoid impeachment or a bad 2020 loss.
But the actual voters may have something very different to say. Despite all the naysaying about Trump’s political future, there is currently a very good chance that he can win again next November, and poll results show far more in his favor than the left would like to admit.
On Monday, Zogby Analytics released a poll that showed Trump’s re-election chances when pitted against leading Democratic candidates. The polling group sampled close to 900 likely voters and asked them how they’d vote if the presidential election were held today.
The results are eye-opening. Despite the noise from liberals and the “Never Trump” crowd, the president came out of the poll with solid numbers, beating every Democratic challenger besides Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Even Warren only managed to tie Trump in the poll. Former Vice President Joe Biden, a fellow front-runner, had even lower numbers.
Forty-seven percent of likely voters said they’d choose Trump over the former vice president, while 45 percent sided with Biden. Eight percent said they were undecided.
The reason the president is trumping Biden, at least in this poll? It’s all about that base.
Zogby explained that Trump won his “normal base,” a group that includes men, white voters, union voters and southern voters, but that the president had also “tightened the race” with independents, suburban voters and Hispanics.
Pause for a moment. Those details are worth a second look, as they expose the deep problems within the Democratic party. For decades, liberals worked tirelessly to present themselves as the party of the blue-collar American worker — especially union members.
Yet as these poll results show, Trump has swooped in and won the support of union workers, and by a wide margin. The Zogby poll revealed that among union voters, the president wins 62 percent compared to Biden’s paltry 32. That’s huge.
But Trump’s impressive numbers go even beyond his base. Even among demographics in which Biden or other Democrats have an advantage over the president, Trump is closing the gaps and doing far better than the media narrative would have you believe.
Take the Hispanic vote, for instance. We’re supposed to believe that all Latinos hate Trump, can’t stand his immigration policies and see him as a racist bigot. But the numbers tell a different story.
Yes, Biden wins among Hispanics in the recent poll, but only barely. Forty-seven percent of Hispanics said they’d vote for Uncle Joe, but Trump is only four points behind with 43 percent — and the margin of error on the poll is 3.3 percentage points.
What about that Trump-Warren tie? Here’s where it gets complicated.
“Of all the candidates, Warren is running the closest with President Trump at the moment,” the Zogby report said.
But for that match-up to actually happen in real life, Warren would, of course, need to win the Democratic nomination. She’s currently running behind Biden — who Zogby shows losing to Trump — in several national polls.
And if Warren is able to bump off Biden and accept the nomination this coming summer, she would almost certainly need to pivot away from her base and toward the center or have no hope of winning in November.
That might mean alienating some of the people who currently support her, such as voters under 30.
Of course, there’s some wisdom in not worrying too much about polls at all. As 2016 showed, the only poll that truly counts is held on election day.
The Zogby poll was one of the few that correctly predicted a tidal change toward Trump in the final months of the last presidential election. While some news outlets gave the political outsider a snowball’s chance in hell of defeating Hillary Clinton, Zogby was one of the few groups brave enough to say otherwise.
One thing is certain: Trump has proved his critics wrong over and over. It would be a mistake to discount him now, all the media jabbering notwithstanding.
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