CBS News Pollster Crushes Left's Midterms Hopes, Blue Wave This Fall Unlikely

Combined Shape

CBS News pollster Anthony Salvanto does not see a blue wave on the horizon in November’s midterm elections at this point.

Salvanto told the New York Post that current polling shows few House seats will change hands, meaning the Republican Party could hold on to its majority.

The GOP presently holds a 236 to 193 edge, or 43 seats.

Salvanto believes 85 percent of the districts represented by that breakdown will stay in the current party, which leaves about 15 percent in play.

“Right now I think this election looks like a toss-up,” he said. “We see a Democrat pickup in the House of Representatives in the 20-odd seat range, but Republicans could certainly hold on to the House.”

Trending:
Fred Weinberg: Getting Rid of Liz Cheney Is the Start to Taking Back Our Government

“Even though Republicans have not fared well in special elections so far this cycle, it does look like they will be turning out for the midterms,” Salvanto added. “So far we do not see a large number of Republicans saying they will flip and vote for a Democrat.”

Traditionally, GOP voters are more likely than Democrats to show up for midterm elections, meaning the Democrats are banking on new voters making the difference this November, according to the Post.

“Views of (President Donald Trump) are a major factor,” Salvanto stated. “The more intensely you feel about him, the more important you think the midterms are.”

The pollster noted that Trump’s approval rating with Republicans has stayed strong.

Do you think the Republicans will hold their majorities in both chambers this fall?

Overall, the Real Clear Politics average of polls has him at 43.6 percent approval.

“We looked at how presidential approval ratings vary over their first year, and it turns out President Trump’s have been the steadiest ever measured,” Salvanto noted. “That’s because his approval numbers among Republicans have been very steady and very strong.”

The Cook Political Report rates 181 current Democrat seats as solid holds heading into the midterms, while the Republicans have 153.

However, when those rated likely or lean toward a party are factored in, the advantage shifts in the GOP’s favor, 203 to 192. Forty seats are rated as a toss-up.

Two hundred and eighteen seats are needed to gain the majority in the House.

Related:
Bomb Squad

On the Senate side, the numbers play much more in the Republicans’ favor, showing a solid opportunity to build on the party’s slim 51 to 49 advantage.

The Democrats have 26 held seats up for election this fall, while the GOP only has nine.

Cook rates five of the Democrat seats as toss up, including Sens. Bill Nelson of Florida, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

For the Republicans, the seats currently held by retiring Sens. Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee along with Sen. Dean Heller, who is seeking re-election, are rated as toss-ups.

Based on this break down, the GOP could easily net two or three seats in November.

Truth and Accuracy

Submit a Correction →






We are committed to truth and accuracy in all of our journalism. Read our editorial standards.

Tags:
, , , , , , ,
Randy DeSoto has written more than 1,000 articles for The Western Journal since he joined the company in 2015. He is a graduate of West Point and Regent University School of Law. He is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths" and screenwriter of the political documentary "I Want Your Money."
Randy DeSoto is the senior staff writer for The Western Journal. He wrote and was the assistant producer of the documentary film "I Want Your Money" about the perils of Big Government, comparing the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama. Randy is the author of the book "We Hold These Truths," which addresses how leaders have appealed to beliefs found in the Declaration of Independence at defining moments in our nation's history. He has been published in several political sites and newspapers.

Randy graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point with a BS in political science and Regent University School of Law with a juris doctorate.
Birthplace
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Nationality
American
Honors/Awards
Graduated dean's list from West Point
Education
United States Military Academy at West Point, Regent University School of Law
Books Written
We Hold These Truths
Professional Memberships
Virginia and Pennsylvania state bars
Location
Phoenix, Arizona
Languages Spoken
English
Topics of Expertise
Politics, Entertainment, Faith




Conversation