He has a track record of being right, and that must infuriate the left.
Helmut Norpoth, an election forecaster and political science professor at Stony Brook University, told Fox News’ Laura Ingraham on Friday that President Donald Trump will most likely win re-election based on what he calls his “Primary Model.”
And Norpoth predicted not just a win, but a landslide victory over presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
The model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of being re-elected and also predicts he will earn 362 electoral votes.
Some recent GOP victories seem to reinforce his predictions.
On May 12, Republicans won two special elections. Tom Tiffany won his race to represent Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District in Congress, while Mike Garcia flipped a Democratic seat in California’s 25th District.
Tom Tiffany (@TomTiffanyWI) is a Great Advocate for the incredible people of Wisconsin (WI07). We need Tom in Congress to help us Make America Great Again! He will Fight for Small Business, supports our Incredible Farmers, Loves our Military and our Vets….
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 11, 2020
“OK, the key to the November election is the primaries. And the early primaries are already giving us a lot of information,” Norpoth said on “The Ingraham Angle.”
“And based on that, Donald Trump won them very easily in his party. Joe Biden, the likely nominee for the Democrats, had a great deal of trouble holding it together. But on balance, it’s that stronger performance in primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in November.”
The professor has a long record of accuracy when it comes to predicting election outcomes.
Following the 2016 election, The Associated Press reported that Norpoth’s predictions have been accurate in every presidential election since 1996.
But according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Biden somehow still holds an advantage over Trump.
And keep in mind these are the pollsters who predicted Hillary Clinton would win the White House in 2016.
They were so wrong.
Voters need to take into consideration Norpoth’s accuracy in predicting who will win, as well as Biden’s major flaw — his gaffes when he speaks. At times, the former vice president appears to lose touch with reality. He is 77 years old and there are growing concerns about his mental fitness.
He’s not helping himself. One recent example of his mind wandering into left field was his interview with CNN’s Dana Bash in which he tried to answer her question about why Trump has not worn a mask in public.
“Presidents are supposed to lead, not engage in folly and be falsely masculine,” Biden said in the interview. “It reminds me of the guys that I grew up with playing ball, they’d walk around with a ball in their hand but they didn’t like to hit very much.”
What did he mean? No one knows. And he has been amassing a blooper reel of blunders on the campaign trail that will look great on Trump campaign commercials.
But in addition to Biden’s frequent gaffes, Norpoth is simply using a formula that has proven to be correct over time.
And as Robert Kiyosaki once said, “the best way to predict the future is to study the past, or prognosticate.”
This is what Norpoth is doing. He has been right for 24 years. And that should give Trump supporters a reason to be confident going into the election season.
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